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        "resumen" => "<span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Objetivos</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Mostrar 2 m&#233;todos estad&#237;sticos para estimar la evoluci&#243;n de la incidencia de consumo de hero&#237;na y coca&#237;na en Barcelona&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">M&#233;todos</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Los inicios de tratamiento por consumo de hero&#237;na y coca&#237;na del Sistema de Informaci&#243;n de Drogas de Barcelona entre 1991 y 2003&#46; Se seleccionaron 4&#46;367 sujetos con un primer tratamiento por hero&#237;na y 2&#46;147 por coca&#237;na&#46; Se ha empleado el m&#233;todo Reporting Delay Adjustment &#40;RDA&#41; y modelos logar&#237;tmicos lineales &#40;MLL&#41;&#44; considerando para el RDA los inicios de tratamiento cuyo inicio de consumo era entre 1991 y 2003&#44; y para el MLL entre 1967 y 2003 para la hero&#237;na y entre 1971 y 2003 para la coca&#237;na&#46; Adem&#225;s&#44; para cada droga y m&#233;todo se estudi&#243; la distribuci&#243;n del per&#237;odo de latencia &#40;PL&#41; &#40;a&#241;os entre el primer consumo y el primer tratamiento&#41;&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Resultados</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Seg&#250;n la distribuci&#243;n del PL&#44; los consumidores de hero&#237;na tardan menos tiempo en iniciar su primer tratamiento que los de coca&#237;na&#44; indistintamente del m&#233;todo empleado&#46; En general&#44; la incidencia estimada de consumo de hero&#237;na en Barcelona disminuy&#243; progresivamente desde 1982&#46; En cambio&#44; para la coca&#237;na aument&#243; r&#225;pidamente hasta 1998&#44; y fue irregular posteriormente&#46; A principios de los noventa la incidencia de consumo de coca&#237;na empez&#243; a ser importante&#44; a&#241;os antes de manifestarse como problem&#225;tica&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Conclusi&#243;n</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">El RDA subestima la incidencia respecto al MLL&#44; pero la incidencia de hero&#237;na con MLL puede estar sesgada antes de 1991 por cambios en la oferta de tratamiento&#46; Aunque la incidencia estimada se refiere a los sujetos que hacen tratamiento alguna vez en la vida&#44; su evoluci&#243;n ayuda a prever acciones futuras&#46;</p>"
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        "resumen" => "<span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Objectives</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">To describe 2 statistical methods for estimating trends in the incidence of heroin and cocaine use in Barcelona&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Methods</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Admissions for treatment of heroin and cocaine consumption recorded by the Barcelona Drug Information System between 1991 and 2003 were used&#46; We selected 4&#44;367 subjects initiating treatment for the first time for heroin use&#44; and 2&#44;147 for cocaine use&#46; Two statistical techniques were employed&#58; Reporting Delay Adjustment &#40;RDA&#41; and the Log-line-ar Model &#40;LLM&#41;&#46; RDA was used in subjects who initiated drug consumption between 1991 and 2003&#44; and LLM for those who began heroin use between 1967 and 2003 and cocaine use between 1971 and 2003&#46; In addition&#44; for each drug and method the latency period &#40;LP&#41; was determined &#40;years between first consumption and first treatment&#41;&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Results</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Comparison of the distributions of the LP for each drug revealed that heroin users initiated treatment for the first time sooner than cocaine users&#44; regardless of the method employed&#46; In general&#44; the estimated incidence of heroin use in Barcelona fell progressively after 1982&#46; In contrast&#44; the incidence of cocaine use rose rapidly until 1998&#44; and has been irregular since&#46; The incidence of cocaine use began to be substantial in the early 1990s&#44; but took several years to manifest itself as problematic&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Conclusion</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">The estimated incidence was underestimated by RDA compared with LLM&#44; but the incidence of heroin use could be biased before 1991 due to changes in treatment provisions&#46; Although the estimated incidence is relative to individuals who are admitted for treatment at some time in their life&#44; trends in incidence can be used to plan future actions&#46;</p>"
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Vol. 21. Núm. 5.
Páginas 397-403 (septiembre - octubre 2007)
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Vol. 21. Núm. 5.
Páginas 397-403 (septiembre - octubre 2007)
Originales
Open Access
Dos métodos para analizar la evolución de la incidencia de consumo de heroína y cocaína en Barcelona
Two methods to analyze trends in the incidence of heroin and cocaine use in Barcelona [Spain]
Visitas
946
Albert Sánchez-Niubòa, Antònia Domingo-Salvanya,
Autor para correspondencia
adomingo@imim.es

Correspondencia: Antònia Domingo-Salvany. Institut Municipal d’Investigació Mèdica. Dr Aiguader, 88. 08003 Barcelona. España.
, Guadalupe Gómez Melisb, M. Teresa Brugalc, Gianpaolo Scalia-Tombad
a Institut Municipal d’Investigació Mèdica, Barcelona, España
b Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona, España
c Agència de Salut Pública de Barcelona, Barcelona, España
d Università di Roma Tor Vergata, Roma, Italia
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Información del artículo
Resumen
Bibliografía
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Estadísticas
Resumen
Objetivos

Mostrar 2 métodos estadísticos para estimar la evolución de la incidencia de consumo de heroína y cocaína en Barcelona.

Métodos

Los inicios de tratamiento por consumo de heroína y cocaína del Sistema de Información de Drogas de Barcelona entre 1991 y 2003. Se seleccionaron 4.367 sujetos con un primer tratamiento por heroína y 2.147 por cocaína. Se ha empleado el método Reporting Delay Adjustment (RDA) y modelos logarítmicos lineales (MLL), considerando para el RDA los inicios de tratamiento cuyo inicio de consumo era entre 1991 y 2003, y para el MLL entre 1967 y 2003 para la heroína y entre 1971 y 2003 para la cocaína. Además, para cada droga y método se estudió la distribución del período de latencia (PL) (años entre el primer consumo y el primer tratamiento).

Resultados

Según la distribución del PL, los consumidores de heroína tardan menos tiempo en iniciar su primer tratamiento que los de cocaína, indistintamente del método empleado. En general, la incidencia estimada de consumo de heroína en Barcelona disminuyó progresivamente desde 1982. En cambio, para la cocaína aumentó rápidamente hasta 1998, y fue irregular posteriormente. A principios de los noventa la incidencia de consumo de cocaína empezó a ser importante, años antes de manifestarse como problemática.

Conclusión

El RDA subestima la incidencia respecto al MLL, pero la incidencia de heroína con MLL puede estar sesgada antes de 1991 por cambios en la oferta de tratamiento. Aunque la incidencia estimada se refiere a los sujetos que hacen tratamiento alguna vez en la vida, su evolución ayuda a prever acciones futuras.

Palabras clave:
Incidencia
Período de latencia
Heroína
Cocaína
Reporting Delay Adjustment
Modelo logorítmico lineal
Abstract
Objectives

To describe 2 statistical methods for estimating trends in the incidence of heroin and cocaine use in Barcelona.

Methods

Admissions for treatment of heroin and cocaine consumption recorded by the Barcelona Drug Information System between 1991 and 2003 were used. We selected 4,367 subjects initiating treatment for the first time for heroin use, and 2,147 for cocaine use. Two statistical techniques were employed: Reporting Delay Adjustment (RDA) and the Log-line-ar Model (LLM). RDA was used in subjects who initiated drug consumption between 1991 and 2003, and LLM for those who began heroin use between 1967 and 2003 and cocaine use between 1971 and 2003. In addition, for each drug and method the latency period (LP) was determined (years between first consumption and first treatment).

Results

Comparison of the distributions of the LP for each drug revealed that heroin users initiated treatment for the first time sooner than cocaine users, regardless of the method employed. In general, the estimated incidence of heroin use in Barcelona fell progressively after 1982. In contrast, the incidence of cocaine use rose rapidly until 1998, and has been irregular since. The incidence of cocaine use began to be substantial in the early 1990s, but took several years to manifest itself as problematic.

Conclusion

The estimated incidence was underestimated by RDA compared with LLM, but the incidence of heroin use could be biased before 1991 due to changes in treatment provisions. Although the estimated incidence is relative to individuals who are admitted for treatment at some time in their life, trends in incidence can be used to plan future actions.

Key words:
Incidence
Latency period
Heroin
Cocaine
Reporting Delay Adjustment
Log-Linear Model
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