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        "resumen" => "<span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Objetivos</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Mostrar 2 m&#233;todos estad&#237;sticos para estimar la evoluci&#243;n de la incidencia de consumo de hero&#237;na y coca&#237;na en Barcelona&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">M&#233;todos</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Los inicios de tratamiento por consumo de hero&#237;na y coca&#237;na del Sistema de Informaci&#243;n de Drogas de Barcelona entre 1991 y 2003&#46; Se seleccionaron 4&#46;367 sujetos con un primer tratamiento por hero&#237;na y 2&#46;147 por coca&#237;na&#46; Se ha empleado el m&#233;todo Reporting Delay Adjustment &#40;RDA&#41; y modelos logar&#237;tmicos lineales &#40;MLL&#41;&#44; considerando para el RDA los inicios de tratamiento cuyo inicio de consumo era entre 1991 y 2003&#44; y para el MLL entre 1967 y 2003 para la hero&#237;na y entre 1971 y 2003 para la coca&#237;na&#46; Adem&#225;s&#44; para cada droga y m&#233;todo se estudi&#243; la distribuci&#243;n del per&#237;odo de latencia &#40;PL&#41; &#40;a&#241;os entre el primer consumo y el primer tratamiento&#41;&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Resultados</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Seg&#250;n la distribuci&#243;n del PL&#44; los consumidores de hero&#237;na tardan menos tiempo en iniciar su primer tratamiento que los de coca&#237;na&#44; indistintamente del m&#233;todo empleado&#46; En general&#44; la incidencia estimada de consumo de hero&#237;na en Barcelona disminuy&#243; progresivamente desde 1982&#46; En cambio&#44; para la coca&#237;na aument&#243; r&#225;pidamente hasta 1998&#44; y fue irregular posteriormente&#46; A principios de los noventa la incidencia de consumo de coca&#237;na empez&#243; a ser importante&#44; a&#241;os antes de manifestarse como problem&#225;tica&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Conclusi&#243;n</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">El RDA subestima la incidencia respecto al MLL&#44; pero la incidencia de hero&#237;na con MLL puede estar sesgada antes de 1991 por cambios en la oferta de tratamiento&#46; Aunque la incidencia estimada se refiere a los sujetos que hacen tratamiento alguna vez en la vida&#44; su evoluci&#243;n ayuda a prever acciones futuras&#46;</p>"
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        "resumen" => "<span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Objectives</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">To describe 2 statistical methods for estimating trends in the incidence of heroin and cocaine use in Barcelona&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Methods</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Admissions for treatment of heroin and cocaine consumption recorded by the Barcelona Drug Information System between 1991 and 2003 were used&#46; We selected 4&#44;367 subjects initiating treatment for the first time for heroin use&#44; and 2&#44;147 for cocaine use&#46; Two statistical techniques were employed&#58; Reporting Delay Adjustment &#40;RDA&#41; and the Log-line-ar Model &#40;LLM&#41;&#46; RDA was used in subjects who initiated drug consumption between 1991 and 2003&#44; and LLM for those who began heroin use between 1967 and 2003 and cocaine use between 1971 and 2003&#46; In addition&#44; for each drug and method the latency period &#40;LP&#41; was determined &#40;years between first consumption and first treatment&#41;&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Results</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Comparison of the distributions of the LP for each drug revealed that heroin users initiated treatment for the first time sooner than cocaine users&#44; regardless of the method employed&#46; In general&#44; the estimated incidence of heroin use in Barcelona fell progressively after 1982&#46; In contrast&#44; the incidence of cocaine use rose rapidly until 1998&#44; and has been irregular since&#46; The incidence of cocaine use began to be substantial in the early 1990s&#44; but took several years to manifest itself as problematic&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Conclusion</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">The estimated incidence was underestimated by RDA compared with LLM&#44; but the incidence of heroin use could be biased before 1991 due to changes in treatment provisions&#46; Although the estimated incidence is relative to individuals who are admitted for treatment at some time in their life&#44; trends in incidence can be used to plan future actions&#46;</p>"
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Originales
Dos métodos para analizar la evolución de la incidencia de consumo de heroína y cocaína en Barcelona
Two methods to analyze trends in the incidence of heroin and cocaine use in Barcelona [Spain]
Albert Sánchez-Niubòa, Antònia Domingo-Salvanya,
Autor para correspondencia
adomingo@imim.es

Correspondencia: Antònia Domingo-Salvany. Institut Municipal d’Investigació Mèdica. Dr Aiguader, 88. 08003 Barcelona. España.
, Guadalupe Gómez Melisb, M. Teresa Brugalc, Gianpaolo Scalia-Tombad
a Institut Municipal d’Investigació Mèdica, Barcelona, España
b Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona, España
c Agència de Salut Pública de Barcelona, Barcelona, España
d Università di Roma Tor Vergata, Roma, Italia
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        "resumen" => "<span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Objetivos</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Mostrar 2 m&#233;todos estad&#237;sticos para estimar la evoluci&#243;n de la incidencia de consumo de hero&#237;na y coca&#237;na en Barcelona&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">M&#233;todos</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Los inicios de tratamiento por consumo de hero&#237;na y coca&#237;na del Sistema de Informaci&#243;n de Drogas de Barcelona entre 1991 y 2003&#46; Se seleccionaron 4&#46;367 sujetos con un primer tratamiento por hero&#237;na y 2&#46;147 por coca&#237;na&#46; Se ha empleado el m&#233;todo Reporting Delay Adjustment &#40;RDA&#41; y modelos logar&#237;tmicos lineales &#40;MLL&#41;&#44; considerando para el RDA los inicios de tratamiento cuyo inicio de consumo era entre 1991 y 2003&#44; y para el MLL entre 1967 y 2003 para la hero&#237;na y entre 1971 y 2003 para la coca&#237;na&#46; Adem&#225;s&#44; para cada droga y m&#233;todo se estudi&#243; la distribuci&#243;n del per&#237;odo de latencia &#40;PL&#41; &#40;a&#241;os entre el primer consumo y el primer tratamiento&#41;&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Resultados</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Seg&#250;n la distribuci&#243;n del PL&#44; los consumidores de hero&#237;na tardan menos tiempo en iniciar su primer tratamiento que los de coca&#237;na&#44; indistintamente del m&#233;todo empleado&#46; En general&#44; la incidencia estimada de consumo de hero&#237;na en Barcelona disminuy&#243; progresivamente desde 1982&#46; En cambio&#44; para la coca&#237;na aument&#243; r&#225;pidamente hasta 1998&#44; y fue irregular posteriormente&#46; A principios de los noventa la incidencia de consumo de coca&#237;na empez&#243; a ser importante&#44; a&#241;os antes de manifestarse como problem&#225;tica&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Conclusi&#243;n</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">El RDA subestima la incidencia respecto al MLL&#44; pero la incidencia de hero&#237;na con MLL puede estar sesgada antes de 1991 por cambios en la oferta de tratamiento&#46; Aunque la incidencia estimada se refiere a los sujetos que hacen tratamiento alguna vez en la vida&#44; su evoluci&#243;n ayuda a prever acciones futuras&#46;</p>"
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        "titulo" => "Abstract"
        "resumen" => "<span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Objectives</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">To describe 2 statistical methods for estimating trends in the incidence of heroin and cocaine use in Barcelona&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Methods</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Admissions for treatment of heroin and cocaine consumption recorded by the Barcelona Drug Information System between 1991 and 2003 were used&#46; We selected 4&#44;367 subjects initiating treatment for the first time for heroin use&#44; and 2&#44;147 for cocaine use&#46; Two statistical techniques were employed&#58; Reporting Delay Adjustment &#40;RDA&#41; and the Log-line-ar Model &#40;LLM&#41;&#46; RDA was used in subjects who initiated drug consumption between 1991 and 2003&#44; and LLM for those who began heroin use between 1967 and 2003 and cocaine use between 1971 and 2003&#46; In addition&#44; for each drug and method the latency period &#40;LP&#41; was determined &#40;years between first consumption and first treatment&#41;&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Results</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Comparison of the distributions of the LP for each drug revealed that heroin users initiated treatment for the first time sooner than cocaine users&#44; regardless of the method employed&#46; In general&#44; the estimated incidence of heroin use in Barcelona fell progressively after 1982&#46; In contrast&#44; the incidence of cocaine use rose rapidly until 1998&#44; and has been irregular since&#46; The incidence of cocaine use began to be substantial in the early 1990s&#44; but took several years to manifest itself as problematic&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Conclusion</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">The estimated incidence was underestimated by RDA compared with LLM&#44; but the incidence of heroin use could be biased before 1991 due to changes in treatment provisions&#46; Although the estimated incidence is relative to individuals who are admitted for treatment at some time in their life&#44; trends in incidence can be used to plan future actions&#46;</p>"
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