Work accidents that happen in a company will cause harm to the workers and also the company. For workers, accidents that occur can result in suffering such as minor or severe injuries, even death.1 Whereas the company must cover medical expenses and medical and hospital costs or even bear the costs of burial if the victim dies, lost work time of the affected employee and fellow workers who help to hinder the smooth running of the work, recruit new employees and provide training and can also reduce the mental or psychological condition of other workers.2 A recent research show that implementation of occupational safety and health program in company is a profitable investment.3

Indonesia is one of the countries that has not achieved the Zero Accident target to reduce the prevalence of workplace accidents. To see the rate of increase in workplace accidents, we need a forecasting or projection method, so that the number of workplace accidents can be predicted.4 Statistical and epidemiological approaches have been used for projections of workplace accidents. So by using quantitative forecasting, the prevalence of workplace accidents can be predicted in the future. Work accidents must be viewed from various sides, such as the cause of the accident, the age of the worker, work shift, type of work, work unit, location, etc.5 This study was aimed to find out trends and projections of work accidents from 2009 to 2022 at PT. Semen Tonasa based on work shifts, workers age and accident types as variables.

A quantitative analysis with a cross-sectional study was used in this study along with secondary data. The population in this study is all the work accident data in PT. Semen Tonasa from 2009 to 2015, no sampling was conducted in this study. In other words, this study is enumerated. It means that all data from PT. Semen Tonasa from 2009 to 2015 serves as the unit of analysis. The data in this study obtained from documents that the company provided in a form of work accident report and work accident investigation report. To know the work accident trend and projection, data analysis was performed using the SPSS program and Microsoft Excel.

The prediction trend of work accident numbers based on work shifts in 2009–2015 was dominated by morning shifts of 0.47–0.35% while in the predictions of 7 years to come there will be a decrease in 2016–2022 ranging from 0.22–0.11%, then the trend of afternoon work shift accidents in 2009–2015 amounted to 0.41–0.23% while the predictions for 2016–2022 decreased by 0.17–0.11%, then for the accident trend the night shift in 2009–2015 occurred at 0.47–0.17% while for the prediction of 7 years to come 2016–2022 there was a decline from 0.11–0.05%. The decline in work shifts in 2009–2015 into the future is expected to train workers competency training related to occupational safety and health, welfare and capacity to work, and encourage innovation, quality and efficiency through continuous improvement.6 The OSH management system in the company has begun to improve and understand how to apply OSH that is good and right or it could be that there are also many unreported or unreported accidents and the management has understood how to enforce work shifts properly.

Based on the age of the workers, the highest prediction trend for work accident rates from each year is different, in 2016 the highest was at the age of 31–40 years at 0.22%, the highest in 2017 at the age of 21–30 and 31–40 years, respectively amounted to 0.17% and in 2022 the highest at the age of 21–30 years was 0.30%. In the years 2009–2015 dominated by age >50 years while in the coming year that is 2016–2022 there have been significant changes that occur a lot in the age of 21–30 years. Young workers are chosen because they are physically strong, but they are usually still full of emotions, carelessness, and lack of experience, so that often leads to actions that endanger his safety. One other important factor as a cause of accidents in young workers is the lack of a sense of responsibility.7 Same with the research in Iran, the workers involved in occupational health is workers with the age 34 years old below due to lack of their experiences.8

Based on the type of accident, the prediction trend for the number of accidents occurring in 2009–2015 is dominated by the type that is falling by 0.76–0.17% while the prediction for the next 7 years, 2016–2022, ranges from 0.17–0,05%, then the trend of accidents that are in contact with hazardous materials in 2009–2015 remained stable while the predictions for 2016–2022 amounted to 0.17–0.30%, then for accident trends that were stricken in 2009–2015 a decrease of 0.18–0.11% while for the prediction of 7 years to come 2016–2022 there is a decrease to reach zero accident 0%, for the trend of a pinched accident in 2009–2015 remains stable and for the prediction of 2016–2022 will decrease from 0.11–0%. One of the factors that can lead into an accident is the environment. A study in China coal mine, work environment can cause the accident 74.6% because of unawareness of unsafe factors in the work environment.9 The work environment is an inseparable part of the type and location of work because one of the work productivity depends on the place and work environment. Therefore, the work environment needs to get serious and major attention. The condition of the workplace environment in which workers carry out their daily activities contains many direct and indirect dangers to workers safety and health.10 The decrease in occupational accidents can be caused by changes in the work environment that is increasingly conducive every year, workers knowledge and awareness are increasing.

Trend and prediction of work shift variables from 2009–2015 is 76 accidents and going down to 49 accidents in 2016–2022 and still dominated by morning shift work accidents from 0.47–0.35% in 2009–2015 to 0.22–0.11% in 2016–2022. For workers age prediction, the work accidents number is also decreasing from 76 cases in 2009–2015 to 66 cases in 2016–2022. But there was a change in cases that occurred in the previous 7 years (2009–2015), work accidents were dominated by workers in the age category 41–50 years old by 27 cases and >50 years old by 22 cases. Whereas for the next 7 years prediction, it was dominated by young workers namely the age category 21–30 years old with as many as 23 cases and 31–40 years old with 21 cases. Occupational accident case variable type of accidents also decreased in the projected occurrence. In 2009 to 2015 there were 76 cases and decreased to 63 cases in 2016 to 2022. For the years 2009 to 2015, work accidents were dominated by accidents falling from a height with a total of 37 cases with a percentage of 0.76–0.17%. After projecting work accidents that will occur for 2016 to 2022, contact with hazardous materials with 28 cases with a percentage of 0.17–0.30%.

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.