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        "resumen" => "<span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Objetivo</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">En este trabajo se presenta la aplicaci&#243;n del an&#225;lisis coste-efectividad de tipo probabil&#237;stico al tratamiento con presi&#243;n continua en la v&#237;a respiratoria por v&#237;a nasal &#40;<span class="elsevierStyleItalic">nasal continuous positive airway pressure</span>&#44; nCPAP&#41; del s&#237;ndrome de la apnea obstructiva del sue&#241;o &#40;SAOS&#41;&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Material y m&#233;todos</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">La base del estudio es un modelo de Markov probabil&#237;stico&#46; &#201;ste se caracteriza porque las variables se introducen en forma de distribuciones&#46; El modelo se procesa mediante 2&#46;000 simulaciones de Monte Carlo&#44; cada una de las cuales calcula el coste y la efectividad incrementales&#46; El resultado se analiza mediante el plano coste-efectividad&#44; la curva de aceptabilidad&#44; el beneficio neto y el valor esperado de la informaci&#243;n perfecta&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Resultados</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">La raz&#243;n coste-efectividad del tratamiento con nCPAP media calculada es de 5&#46;480 &#8364;&#47;a&#241;o de vida ajustado por calidad &#40;AVAC&#41;&#46; Utilizando como umbral de eficiencia la cifra de 30&#46;000 &#8364;&#47;AVAC&#44; el an&#225;lisis probabil&#237;stico muestra que en el 98&#44;5&#37; de las simulaciones el tratamiento con nCPAP es una pr&#225;ctica eficiente&#46; El valor esperado de la informaci&#243;n perfecta muestra que el par&#225;metro que origina m&#225;s incertidumbre en el resultado es la ganancia en calidad de vida producida por el tratamiento&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Conclusiones</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">El an&#225;lisis de tipo probabil&#237;stico ratifica el resultado de los estudios deterministas que caracterizan el tratamiento con nCPAP como una intervenci&#243;n eficiente&#46; La ventaja a&#241;adida es que permite situar la incertidumbre en t&#233;rminos cuantitativos&#59; en este caso la probabilidad de equivocarse es inferior al 5&#37;&#46; Adem&#225;s&#44; el estudio muestra que para reducir esa incertidumbre la investigaci&#243;n debe centrarse en la mejora de la informaci&#243;n referente a la calidad de vida&#46;</p>"
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        "resumen" => "<span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Objective</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">To describe the application of a probabilistic costeffectiveness analysis to nasal continuous positive airway passage &#40;nCPAP&#41; treatment of obstructive sleep apnea syndrome &#40;OSAS&#41;&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Material and Methods</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">The probabilistic model was constructed from a discrete Markov model&#46; This probabilistic approach is characterized by the introduction of variables as probability distributions&#46; The model performed 2&#44;000 Monte Carlo simulations&#44; and incremental costs and effectiveness were calculated in each&#46; The results were analyzed through the costeffectiveness plane&#44; the acceptability curve&#44; the net benefit rule&#44; and the expected value of perfect information &#40;EVPI&#41;&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Results</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">The mean cost-effectiveness ratio for nCPAP treatment was 5&#44;480 &#8364;&#47;QALY &#40;quality-adjusted life year&#41;&#46; Using an acceptability threshold of 30&#44;000 &#8364;&#47;QALY&#44; the probabilistic analysis showed that nCPAP was the optimal treatment in 98&#46;5&#37; of the simulations&#46; The EVPI showed that the parameter causing greatest uncertainty in the final results was the quality of life gain through nCPAP treatment&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Conclusions</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">The results of our probabilistic analysis are endorsed by previous deterministic studies confirming that nCPAP treatment of OSAS is the most cost-effective strategy&#46; An additional advantage of probabilistic analysis is that it allows uncertainty to be quantified&#59; in the present case the probability of making the wrong decision was below 5&#37;&#46; Furthermore&#44; this study reveals that to reduce uncertainty&#44; research should center on improving information on quality of life&#46;</p>"
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Vol. 20. Núm. 1.
Páginas 47-53 (enero - febrero 2006)
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Vol. 20. Núm. 1.
Páginas 47-53 (enero - febrero 2006)
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Open Access
Análisis coste-efectividad de tipo probabilístico del tratamiento de la apnea del sueño
Probabilistic cost-effectiveness analysis of the treatment of sleep apnea
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Javier Mara,
Autor para correspondencia
jmar@hmon.osakidetza.net

Correspondencia: Dr. Javier Mar. Unidad de Gestión Sanitaria. Hospital Alto Deba. C/Zaldispe, s/n. 20500 Mondragón. Gipuzkoa. España.
, Santiago Gutiérrez-Morenob, Jim Chilcottc
a Unidad de Gestión Sanitaria, Hospital Alto Deba, Mondragón, Gipuzkoa, España
b Servicio de Evaluación y Planificación, Servicio Canario de Salud, Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Tenerife, España
c School of Health and Related Research, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, Reino Unido.
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Resumen
Objetivo

En este trabajo se presenta la aplicación del análisis coste-efectividad de tipo probabilístico al tratamiento con presión continua en la vía respiratoria por vía nasal (nasal continuous positive airway pressure, nCPAP) del síndrome de la apnea obstructiva del sueño (SAOS).

Material y métodos

La base del estudio es un modelo de Markov probabilístico. Éste se caracteriza porque las variables se introducen en forma de distribuciones. El modelo se procesa mediante 2.000 simulaciones de Monte Carlo, cada una de las cuales calcula el coste y la efectividad incrementales. El resultado se analiza mediante el plano coste-efectividad, la curva de aceptabilidad, el beneficio neto y el valor esperado de la información perfecta.

Resultados

La razón coste-efectividad del tratamiento con nCPAP media calculada es de 5.480 €/año de vida ajustado por calidad (AVAC). Utilizando como umbral de eficiencia la cifra de 30.000 €/AVAC, el análisis probabilístico muestra que en el 98,5% de las simulaciones el tratamiento con nCPAP es una práctica eficiente. El valor esperado de la información perfecta muestra que el parámetro que origina más incertidumbre en el resultado es la ganancia en calidad de vida producida por el tratamiento.

Conclusiones

El análisis de tipo probabilístico ratifica el resultado de los estudios deterministas que caracterizan el tratamiento con nCPAP como una intervención eficiente. La ventaja añadida es que permite situar la incertidumbre en términos cuantitativos; en este caso la probabilidad de equivocarse es inferior al 5%. Además, el estudio muestra que para reducir esa incertidumbre la investigación debe centrarse en la mejora de la información referente a la calidad de vida.

Palabras clave:
Síndrome de apnea obstructiva del sueño
Tratamiento
Análisis coste-efectividad
Simulaciones de Monte Carlo
Abstract
Objective

To describe the application of a probabilistic costeffectiveness analysis to nasal continuous positive airway passage (nCPAP) treatment of obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS).

Material and Methods

The probabilistic model was constructed from a discrete Markov model. This probabilistic approach is characterized by the introduction of variables as probability distributions. The model performed 2,000 Monte Carlo simulations, and incremental costs and effectiveness were calculated in each. The results were analyzed through the costeffectiveness plane, the acceptability curve, the net benefit rule, and the expected value of perfect information (EVPI).

Results

The mean cost-effectiveness ratio for nCPAP treatment was 5,480 €/QALY (quality-adjusted life year). Using an acceptability threshold of 30,000 €/QALY, the probabilistic analysis showed that nCPAP was the optimal treatment in 98.5% of the simulations. The EVPI showed that the parameter causing greatest uncertainty in the final results was the quality of life gain through nCPAP treatment.

Conclusions

The results of our probabilistic analysis are endorsed by previous deterministic studies confirming that nCPAP treatment of OSAS is the most cost-effective strategy. An additional advantage of probabilistic analysis is that it allows uncertainty to be quantified; in the present case the probability of making the wrong decision was below 5%. Furthermore, this study reveals that to reduce uncertainty, research should center on improving information on quality of life.

Key words:
Obstructive sleep apnea syndrome
Treatment
Cost-effectiveness analysis
Monte Carlo simulations
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