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    "titulo" => "Incorporación de la metodología geoestadística a la vigilancia de la gripe en una red centinela"
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            "nombre" => "J.J."
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        "titulo" => "Resumen"
        "resumen" => "<span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Objetivo</span><p id="spar0005" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Valorar la descripci&#243;n geoestad&#237;stica realizada de los datos de gripe recogidos a trav&#233;s de la Red Centinela Sanitaria de la Comunidad Valenciana &#40;RCSCV&#41; mediante la utilizaci&#243;n del m&#233;todo kriging con la finalidad de evaluar la posibilidad de su incorporaci&#243;n a la vigilancia rutinaria</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">M&#233;todo</span><p id="spar0010" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Se han utilizado los datos de vigilancia de gripe de la RCSCV en tres temporadas gripales &#40;1997-1998&#44; 1998-1999 y 1999-2000&#41;&#44; construy&#233;ndose una matriz de datos de incidencia de gripe geocodificada&#46; La distribuci&#243;n geogr&#225;fica fue estudiada mediante la t&#233;cnica geoestad&#237;stica kriging&#44; que permite estimar la incidencia de la enfermedad en cualquier punto del territorio&#44; a partir de la incidencia observada en unos pocos puntos estrat&#233;gicamente distribuidos&#46; Se elaboraron mapas de curvas de isoincidencia de gripe para cada semana&#46; La valoraci&#243;n de la t&#233;cnica se realiz&#243; mediante validaci&#243;n cruzada&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Resultados</span><p id="spar0015" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">En la mayor&#237;a de las semanas&#44; los valores tanto de la desviaci&#243;n est&#225;ndar &#40;DE&#41; reducida&#44; como de la media reducida estuvieron cercanos a los valores considerados &#243;ptimos &#40;0 o 1&#44; respectivamente&#41;&#44; y s&#243;lo en la &#250;ltima temporada se obtuvieron valores de la DE reducida alejados de los considerados como de buen ajuste en 12 de las 20 semanas&#46; La estimaci&#243;n de tasas en todas las temporadas demostr&#243; una coherencia en su distribuci&#243;n espacial&#46; Tambi&#233;n se observ&#243; coherencia en la evoluci&#243;n temporal&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Conclusiones</span><p id="spar0020" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">En la mayor&#237;a de las situaciones los resultados pueden considerarse aceptables&#44; no requiere recursos inform&#225;ticos extraordinarios ni un empleo de tiempo excesivo&#44; y necesita tan s&#243;lo una adaptaci&#243;n anual&#46; Su facilidad de uso lo hace apto para su utilizaci&#243;n como una t&#233;cnica de rutina&#44; pese a que puede mejorarse la precisi&#243;n de las estimaciones&#44; incrementando la complejidad del modelo&#46;</p>"
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        "titulo" => "Abstract"
        "resumen" => "<span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Objectives</span><p id="spar0025" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">To evaluate geostatistical description of influenza data from the Valencian Sentinel Network &#40;VSN&#41; in Spain using the kriging method and to assess the possibility of incorporating this method into routine surveillance&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Methods</span><p id="spar0030" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">We use influenza surveillance data on three influenza seasons &#40;1997-1998&#44; 1998-1999 and 1999-2000&#41; from the VSN to construct a geocodified data matrix of the incidence of this disease&#46; The geographic distribution was studied using the kriging method&#44; which enables estimation of the incidence in a few strategically distributed points&#46; Influenza isoincidence maps for each week were plotted&#46; Cross validation was used to evaluate the method&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Results</span><p id="spar0035" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">In most of the weeks&#44; the values of reduced standard deviation and reduced mean were close to the optimal values &#40;0 and 1&#44; respectively&#41;&#46; Out of range reduced standard deviation values were found in 12 of 20 weeks in the last season only&#46; The estimation of rates in all three seasons showed coherence in spatial distribution and temporal evolution&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Conclusions</span><p id="spar0040" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">In most situations the results were acceptable&#46; The method does not requiere extra computer resources or an excessive amount of time and requires only annual adaptation&#46; Becauseit is easy to use&#44; the technique is appropriate for routine use but the accuracy of estimations could be improved by increasing the complexity of the model&#46;</p>"
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