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          "en" => "<p id="spar0030" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Daily COVID-19 cases observation and model in three social distancing regimes&#46; From the bottom up display the cases in Japan&#44; Republic of Korea&#44; and Malaysia&#44; respectively&#46;</p>"
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    "textoCompleto" => "<span class="elsevierStyleSections"><span id="sec0005" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0035">Introduction</span><p id="par0005" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Since its first outbreak on late December 2019 from Wuhan China&#44; Coronavirus Disease 2019 &#40;COVID-19&#41; spreads rapidly and brings enormous socio-economic impacts to affected countries in the globe&#46; As of 25 June 2020&#44; more than 9&#46;4 million cases and 482 thousand deaths are reported worldwide&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0130"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">1</span></a> These numbers still seem to escalate over time and affect more areas&#46; In order to suppress further spread of this virus&#44; WHO recommends each country to follow six steps&#58; increase public health workforce capability&#44; construct a tracing system for detection&#44; build-up testing capacity and availability&#44; identify and adapt key facilities for medical treatment&#44; conceive a clear plan to quarantine contacts and refocus national policy on controlling COVID-19 spread&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0135"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">2</span></a></p><p id="par0010" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">In responding to this pandemic Governments around the world have implemented a range of strategies such as&#58; containment&#44; mitigation and suppression&#46; Widespread social distancing measures&#44; quarantine&#44; and lockdowns are favored by some countries&#44;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0140"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">3</span></a> while others prefer to initiate large-scale testing and tracing strategies&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0145"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">4</span></a> The outcomes of these efforts in virus containment are measured by the so-called effective reproduction number&#44; Reff&#46; There are three regimes or levels of social distancing performed in many countries and their effectiveness has not been compared yet&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs" href="#bib0150"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">5&#44;6</span></a> It is important to note that these policies were successful in controlling the prior epidemics&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs" href="#bib0160"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">7&#8211;9</span></a></p><p id="par0015" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Social distancing will limit the mobility of people&#46; The main target is those with symptomatic and asymptomatic virus carrier to prevent further transmission in a community&#46; COVID-19 testing is conducted to identify whether or not a person has the virus&#46; The test&#39;s result will trigger other procedures&#44; i&#46;e&#46; contact-tracing and isolation&#46; So&#44; both social distancing and testing are expected to control virus spread&#46; However&#44; their roles are still not clear&#46; This work presents a simple multiple regression model quantifying significant factors responsible for COVID-19 cases in three countries with different level of social distancing&#46; The work is expected to contribute in shaping policies for pandemic containment&#46;</p></span><span id="sec0010" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0040">Method</span><span id="sec0015" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0045">Data</span><p id="par0020" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Daily confirmed cases of COVID-19&#44; testing rates and social distancing measures from three countries are retrieved from <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation</span> website&#46; The regimes are classified as&#58; all closed&#44; partly closed&#44; and educational closed and they are further quantified as mobility index&#46; These different regimes are represented by Malaysia&#44; Republic of Korea&#44; and Japan&#44; respectively&#46; All data set is downloaded and presented in Supplementary data&#58; COVID-19 data&#46; The model inputs or predictors consist of lagged in time for both testing data and mobility index&#46; The lagged days starts from the day of testing to the previous 14 days before the testing event&#46; These lags are written as subscript &#8216;0&#8217;&#44; and &#8216;&#8722;14&#8217;&#44; respectively &#40;see <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#tbl0005">Table 1</a>&#41;&#46; This lagged in times is selected due to the maximum incubation period of Coronavirus reported by WHO&#44;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0175"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">10</span></a> which then used by the Governments for determining the length of quarantine&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0180"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">11</span></a></p><elsevierMultimedia ident="tbl0005"></elsevierMultimedia></span><span id="sec0020" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0050">Data modeling</span><p id="par0025" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">In this study&#44; we apply Stepwise Multiple Regression &#40;SWMR&#41;&#44; the combination of forward selection and backward elimination method to select significant lagged test and mobility index that correlate with confirmed COVID-19 cases&#46; The SWMR selects the significant inputs or predictors based on <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">p</span>-value of 0&#46;05&#46; The resulting selected inputs are presented in <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#tbl0005">Table 1</a>&#46;</p><p id="par0030" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Stepwise regression uses the same analytical optimization procedure as multiple regression but differs in that a subset of predictor variables is selected sequentially from a group of predictors using statistical testing or hypotheses&#46; This procedure rely on the Gauss&#8211;Jordan algorithm&#44; whereas the optimum or ideal sub-model chosen from a candidate model containing only variables that are statistically significant at a specific level&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0185"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">12</span></a> This method has been used in many applications&#44; such as marine and fisheries&#44;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0190"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">13</span></a> mining and geology&#44;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0195"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">14</span></a> engineering<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0200"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">15</span></a> atmospheric studies<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0205"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">16</span></a> even social and psychological research&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0210"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">17</span></a></p></span><span id="sec0025" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0055">Model skill assessment</span><p id="par0035" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">The skills of models in predicting daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 for each region are measured using predictability&#44; i&#46;e&#46; the coefficient of determination R<span class="elsevierStyleSup">2</span><a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0215"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">18</span></a> and root-mean squared error &#40;RMSE&#41;&#46; The modeling scheme and their skill outputs in each social distancing regime are presented in <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#fig0005">Fig&#46; 1</a> and <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#tbl0005">Table 1</a>&#46;</p><elsevierMultimedia ident="fig0005"></elsevierMultimedia></span></span><span id="sec0030" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0060">Result and discussion</span><p id="par0040" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">The prediction skill of SWMR model is summarized in <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#tbl0005">Table 1</a>&#46; <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#tbl0005">Table 1</a> shows significant factors&#44; determined by their standardized coefficient <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">&#946;</span>&#8217;s&#44; which are responsible for daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 in three social distancing regimes&#46;</p><p id="par0045" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Each country has different significant factors in determining the daily COVID-19 cases&#46; Malaysia&#44; for example&#44; applies a full closed mode&#46; The significant factors are MI-4&#44; T-14&#44; T-8&#44; T-14&#42;MI-7&#46; Here&#44; the mobility index has a stronger effect than testing efforts in determining COVID-19 cases in view of the standardized coefficient <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">&#946;</span>&#8217;s&#46; The Malaysian cases show that there is a negative correlation between COVID-19 cases and the mobility index&#46; If more people stay at home means less social interaction between people&#46; This will result in reducing the confirmed COVID-19 cases&#46;</p><p id="par0050" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Republic of Korea or South Korea with partly closed mode has three significant factors MI-1&#44; T-5&#44; T-5&#42;MI-1&#46; South Korea has mobility index as a stronger effect but indicates a positive correlation with COVID-19 cases&#46; South Korea applied mitigation strategies such as large-scale testing and tracing in the early stage rather than suppression&#46; When this country has the second largest confirmed cases in the world&#44; on February 23&#44; the Korean government has raised the COVID-19 alert level to the highest &#40;Level 4&#41; along with the enactment of social distancing measures&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0220"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">19</span></a> However&#44; despite the rapid implementation of a massive detection strategy&#44; South Korea is successful in responding the epidemics&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs" href="#bib0145"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">4&#44;20</span></a></p><p id="par0055" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Japan has eight significant predictors dominated by mobility indices&#44; MI-1&#44; MI 0&#44; MI-4&#44; MI-9&#44; MI 0&#42;MI-9&#44; T-5&#44; T-1&#44; T-5&#42;MI-4&#46; Again&#44; the mobility index is more important than that of the number of test conducted in determining COVID-19&#46; Japan conducts their own model in response to COVID-19&#44; using the cluster-based approach and behavioral changes that mostly related to Japanese tradition&#46; Japanese has the habit of wearing masks and practicing the non-physical contact etiquette <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0230"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">21</span></a> and social distancing measures&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0235"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">22</span></a></p><p id="par0060" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Of three social distancing regimes&#44; it&#39;s demonstrated that the mobility index plays an important role compared with testing&#44; despite each model consists of coupled factors combining both&#46; This result seems to assert the nature of SARS-CoV-2 as high transmissibility virus which has a range of basic reproduction number from 2&#46;8 to 5&#46;5 in the absence of full quarantine and social distancing measures&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0240"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">23</span></a> Experience from past epidemics&#44; in the absence of effective intervention and supportive healthcare system&#44; a variety of non-pharmaceutical interventions are proven to successful in reducing case numbers&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0240"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">23</span></a> It means that isolating&#44; quarantine&#44; contact tracing&#44; social distancing&#44; travel restriction&#44; non-essential facility closure&#44; and avoiding all activities in a large group have shown to be effective ways in responding to the outbreak when implemented early in the epidemic&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs" href="#bib0240"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">23&#8211;25</span></a></p><p id="par0065" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall"><a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#fig0010">Fig&#46; 2</a> shows the comparison between observed and the predicted daily confirmed COVID-19 cases&#46; Note the different range of time depending on recorded data for each country&#46; Note also that&#44; each country has its own epidemic curve&#46; For instance&#44; South Korea has its cases peaks in late February while Japan just entered its peak at the beginning of April&#46; Even though the model&#39;s predictability is above 75&#37;&#44; the model fails to predict the flat peak in Malaysia&#44; the highest peak-level in Korea and decreased cases in Japan&#46;</p><elsevierMultimedia ident="fig0010"></elsevierMultimedia></span><span id="sec0035" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0065">Conclusions</span><p id="par0070" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">All models predictability for the three countries with different social distancing regimes are above 75&#37;&#46; The mobility index plays more important role than the number of testing in determining COVID-19 cases&#46;</p></span><span id="sec0040" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0070">Supplementary data&#58; covid-19 data</span><p id="par0075" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">The supplementary data can be found on this github repository&#58; <a href="https://github.com/andika9807/supplementary_data_mobility">Https&#58;&#47;&#47;github&#46;com&#47;andika9807&#47;supplementary&#95;data&#95;mobility</a>&#46;</p></span><span id="sec0045" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0075">Conflicts of interest</span><p id="par0080" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">The authors declare no conflict of interest&#46;</p></span></span>"
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        "resumen" => "<span id="abst0005" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0010">Objective</span><p id="spar0005" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">The COVID-19 pandemic put enormous socio-economic pressures on most countries all over the world&#46; In order to contain the spread of the coronavirus&#44; governments implemented both pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions&#46; This simple modeling work aims to quantify the effect of three levels of social distancing and large-scale testing on daily COVID-19 cases in Malaysia&#44; Republic of Korea&#44; and Japan&#46;</p></span> <span id="abst0010" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0015">Method</span><p id="spar0010" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">The model uses a Stepwise Multiple Regression &#40;SWMR&#41; method for selecting lagged mobility index and testing correlated with daily cases based on a 0&#46;05 level of significance&#46;</p></span> <span id="abst0015" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0020">Result</span><p id="spar0015" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">The models&#39;s predictability ranges are from 75&#37; to 92&#37;&#46; It is also found that the mobility index plays a more important role&#44; in comparison to testing rates&#44; in determining daily confirmed cases&#46;</p></span> <span id="abst0020" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0025">Conclusion</span><p id="spar0020" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Behavioral changes that support physical distancing measures should be practiced to slow down the COVID-19 spreads&#46;</p></span>"
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        "nota" => "<p class="elsevierStyleNotepara" id="npar0005">Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 3rd International Nursing&#44; Health Science Students &#38; Health Care Professionals Conference&#46; Full-text and the content of it is under responsibility of authors of the article&#46;</p>"
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          "en" => "<p id="spar0025" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">SWMR &#40;Stepwise Multiple Regression&#41; model for selecting significant predictors associated with COVID-19 confirmed cases&#46; The input consists of daily testing&#44; and daily-lagged data for both the number of test performed and mobility index&#46; The prediction skill of the models is summarized in <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#tbl0005">Table 1</a>&#46;</p>"
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          "en" => "<p id="spar0030" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Daily COVID-19 cases observation and model in three social distancing regimes&#46; From the bottom up display the cases in Japan&#44; Republic of Korea&#44; and Malaysia&#44; respectively&#46;</p>"
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                  <table border="0" frame="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\tvoid\n
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                  \t\t\t\t\ttop\n
                  \t\t\t\t" scope="col">Country&#47;period&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t\t\t</th><th class="td" title="\n
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                  \t\t\t\t" scope="col">Predictors&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
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                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-head\n
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                  \t\t\t\t" scope="col">Models&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
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                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-head\n
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                  \t\t\t\t" scope="col" style="border-bottom: 2px solid black">Prediction skills</th></tr><tr title="table-row"><th class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-head\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="" valign="\n
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                  \t\t\t\t" scope="col" style="border-bottom: 2px solid black">&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t\t\t</th><th class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-head\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="" valign="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttop\n
                  \t\t\t\t" scope="col" style="border-bottom: 2px solid black">&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t\t\t</th><th class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-head\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="" valign="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttop\n
                  \t\t\t\t" scope="col" style="border-bottom: 2px solid black">&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t\t\t</th><th class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-head\n
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                  \t\t\t\t\ttop\n
                  \t\t\t\t" scope="col" style="border-bottom: 2px solid black">Predictability R2 &#40;&#37;&#41;&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t\t\t</th><th class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-head\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttop\n
                  \t\t\t\t" scope="col" style="border-bottom: 2px solid black">RMSE &#40;cases&#41;&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t\t\t</th></tr></thead><tbody title="tbody"><tr title="table-row"><td class="td-with-role" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t ; entry_with_role_rowhead " align="left" valign="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttop\n
                  \t\t\t\t">Malaysia&#58; 01&#47;03&#47;2020 &#8211; 12&#47;05&#47;2020 &#40;73 days&#41;&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="\n
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                  \t\t\t\t">MI-4 &#40;<span class="elsevierStyleItalic">&#946;</span><span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#61;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>3&#46;937&#41;&#44; T-14 &#40;<span class="elsevierStyleItalic">&#946;</span><span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#61;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>0&#46;023&#41;&#44; T-8 &#40;<span class="elsevierStyleItalic">&#946;</span><span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#61;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>0&#46;006&#41;&#44; T-14&#42;MI-7 &#40;<span class="elsevierStyleItalic">&#946;</span><span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#61;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>0&#46;001&#41;&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="\n
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                  \t\t\t\t">Daily cases<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#61;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#8722;4&#46;491&#42;MI-4<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#43;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>0&#46;031&#42;T-14<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#8722;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>0&#46;007&#42;T-8<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#43;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>0&#46;001&#42;T-14&#42;MI-7<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#8722;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>29&#46;375&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
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                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="char" valign="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttop\n
                  \t\t\t\t">75&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="char" valign="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttop\n
                  \t\t\t\t">32&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
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                  \t\t\t\t">Rep&#46; of Korea&#58; 20&#47;02&#47;2020&#8211;13&#47;05&#47;2020 &#40;84 days&#41;&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
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                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="\n
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                  \t\t\t\t">Daily cases<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#61;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>89&#46;669&#42;MI-1<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#8722;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>0&#46;183&#42;T-5<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#8722;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>0&#46;011&#42;T-5&#42;MI-1<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#43;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>1527&#46;6&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
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                  \t\t\t\t">84&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
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                  \t\t\t\t  " align="char" valign="\n
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                  \t\t\t\t">75&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td></tr><tr title="table-row"><td class="td-with-role" title="\n
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                  \t\t\t\t">Japan&#58; 17&#47;02&#47;2020 &#8211;10&#47;05&#47;2020 &#40;84 days&#41;&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="\n
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                  \t\t\t\t">MI-1 &#40;<span class="elsevierStyleItalic">&#946;</span><span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#61;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>151&#46;287&#41;&#44; MI 0 &#40;<span class="elsevierStyleItalic">&#946;</span><span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#61;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>92&#46;173&#41;&#44; MI-4 &#40;<span class="elsevierStyleItalic">&#946;</span><span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#61;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>72&#46;858&#41;&#44; MI-9 &#40;<span class="elsevierStyleItalic">&#946;</span><span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#61;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>29&#46;384&#41;&#44; MI0&#42;MI-9 &#40;<span class="elsevierStyleItalic">&#946;</span><span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#61;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>1&#46;247&#41; T-5 &#40;<span class="elsevierStyleItalic">&#946;</span><span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#61;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>0&#46;153&#41;&#44; T-1 &#40;<span class="elsevierStyleItalic">&#946;</span><span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#61;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>0&#46;074&#41;&#44; T-5&#42;MI-4 &#40;<span class="elsevierStyleItalic">&#946;</span><span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#61;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>0&#46;008&#41;&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
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                  \t\t\t\t">Daily cases<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#61;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#8722;167&#46;82&#42;MI-1<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#43;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>105&#46;8&#42;MI0<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#43;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>71&#46;14&#42;MI-4<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#8722;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>31&#46;28&#42;MI-9<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#8722;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>1&#46;14&#42;MI0&#42;MI-9<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#8722;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>0&#46;17&#42;T-5<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#43;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>0&#46;134&#42;T-1<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#8722;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>0&#46;006&#42;T-5&#42;MI-4<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#8722;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>120&#46;61&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
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                  \t\t\t\t  " align="char" valign="\n
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                  \t\t\t\t">92&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
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                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="char" valign="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttop\n
                  \t\t\t\t">58&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td></tr></tbody></table>
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          "en" => "<p id="spar0035" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">SWMR model using lagged Mobility Index &#40;MI&#41; lagged Testing &#40;T&#41; and their associated skill&#46;</p>"
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                            1 => "M&#46; Osooli"
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        "texto" => "<p id="par0085" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">We thank the institute for health metrics and evaluation for providing the dataset of daily confirmed cases of covid-19&#44; daily covid-19 tests&#44; and the mobility indices of Malaysia&#44; South Korea&#44; and Japan available to the public&#46;</p>"
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Determining significant factors associated with daily COVID-19 cases within three social distancing regimes
Putri Wulandaria, Andikaa, Halmar Halideb,
Autor para correspondencia
a Earth Sciences Department, FITB, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung, Indonesia
b Geophysics Department, FMIPA, Universitas Hasanuddin, Makassar, Indonesia
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    "titulo" => "Determining significant factors associated with daily COVID-19 cases within three social distancing regimes"
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          "en" => "<p id="spar0030" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Daily COVID-19 cases observation and model in three social distancing regimes&#46; From the bottom up display the cases in Japan&#44; Republic of Korea&#44; and Malaysia&#44; respectively&#46;</p>"
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    "textoCompleto" => "<span class="elsevierStyleSections"><span id="sec0005" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0035">Introduction</span><p id="par0005" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Since its first outbreak on late December 2019 from Wuhan China&#44; Coronavirus Disease 2019 &#40;COVID-19&#41; spreads rapidly and brings enormous socio-economic impacts to affected countries in the globe&#46; As of 25 June 2020&#44; more than 9&#46;4 million cases and 482 thousand deaths are reported worldwide&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0130"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">1</span></a> These numbers still seem to escalate over time and affect more areas&#46; In order to suppress further spread of this virus&#44; WHO recommends each country to follow six steps&#58; increase public health workforce capability&#44; construct a tracing system for detection&#44; build-up testing capacity and availability&#44; identify and adapt key facilities for medical treatment&#44; conceive a clear plan to quarantine contacts and refocus national policy on controlling COVID-19 spread&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0135"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">2</span></a></p><p id="par0010" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">In responding to this pandemic Governments around the world have implemented a range of strategies such as&#58; containment&#44; mitigation and suppression&#46; Widespread social distancing measures&#44; quarantine&#44; and lockdowns are favored by some countries&#44;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0140"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">3</span></a> while others prefer to initiate large-scale testing and tracing strategies&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0145"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">4</span></a> The outcomes of these efforts in virus containment are measured by the so-called effective reproduction number&#44; Reff&#46; There are three regimes or levels of social distancing performed in many countries and their effectiveness has not been compared yet&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs" href="#bib0150"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">5&#44;6</span></a> It is important to note that these policies were successful in controlling the prior epidemics&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs" href="#bib0160"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">7&#8211;9</span></a></p><p id="par0015" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Social distancing will limit the mobility of people&#46; The main target is those with symptomatic and asymptomatic virus carrier to prevent further transmission in a community&#46; COVID-19 testing is conducted to identify whether or not a person has the virus&#46; The test&#39;s result will trigger other procedures&#44; i&#46;e&#46; contact-tracing and isolation&#46; So&#44; both social distancing and testing are expected to control virus spread&#46; However&#44; their roles are still not clear&#46; This work presents a simple multiple regression model quantifying significant factors responsible for COVID-19 cases in three countries with different level of social distancing&#46; The work is expected to contribute in shaping policies for pandemic containment&#46;</p></span><span id="sec0010" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0040">Method</span><span id="sec0015" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0045">Data</span><p id="par0020" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Daily confirmed cases of COVID-19&#44; testing rates and social distancing measures from three countries are retrieved from <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation</span> website&#46; The regimes are classified as&#58; all closed&#44; partly closed&#44; and educational closed and they are further quantified as mobility index&#46; These different regimes are represented by Malaysia&#44; Republic of Korea&#44; and Japan&#44; respectively&#46; All data set is downloaded and presented in Supplementary data&#58; COVID-19 data&#46; The model inputs or predictors consist of lagged in time for both testing data and mobility index&#46; The lagged days starts from the day of testing to the previous 14 days before the testing event&#46; These lags are written as subscript &#8216;0&#8217;&#44; and &#8216;&#8722;14&#8217;&#44; respectively &#40;see <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#tbl0005">Table 1</a>&#41;&#46; This lagged in times is selected due to the maximum incubation period of Coronavirus reported by WHO&#44;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0175"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">10</span></a> which then used by the Governments for determining the length of quarantine&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0180"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">11</span></a></p><elsevierMultimedia ident="tbl0005"></elsevierMultimedia></span><span id="sec0020" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0050">Data modeling</span><p id="par0025" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">In this study&#44; we apply Stepwise Multiple Regression &#40;SWMR&#41;&#44; the combination of forward selection and backward elimination method to select significant lagged test and mobility index that correlate with confirmed COVID-19 cases&#46; The SWMR selects the significant inputs or predictors based on <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">p</span>-value of 0&#46;05&#46; The resulting selected inputs are presented in <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#tbl0005">Table 1</a>&#46;</p><p id="par0030" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Stepwise regression uses the same analytical optimization procedure as multiple regression but differs in that a subset of predictor variables is selected sequentially from a group of predictors using statistical testing or hypotheses&#46; This procedure rely on the Gauss&#8211;Jordan algorithm&#44; whereas the optimum or ideal sub-model chosen from a candidate model containing only variables that are statistically significant at a specific level&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0185"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">12</span></a> This method has been used in many applications&#44; such as marine and fisheries&#44;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0190"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">13</span></a> mining and geology&#44;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0195"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">14</span></a> engineering<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0200"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">15</span></a> atmospheric studies<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0205"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">16</span></a> even social and psychological research&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0210"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">17</span></a></p></span><span id="sec0025" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0055">Model skill assessment</span><p id="par0035" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">The skills of models in predicting daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 for each region are measured using predictability&#44; i&#46;e&#46; the coefficient of determination R<span class="elsevierStyleSup">2</span><a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0215"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">18</span></a> and root-mean squared error &#40;RMSE&#41;&#46; The modeling scheme and their skill outputs in each social distancing regime are presented in <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#fig0005">Fig&#46; 1</a> and <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#tbl0005">Table 1</a>&#46;</p><elsevierMultimedia ident="fig0005"></elsevierMultimedia></span></span><span id="sec0030" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0060">Result and discussion</span><p id="par0040" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">The prediction skill of SWMR model is summarized in <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#tbl0005">Table 1</a>&#46; <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#tbl0005">Table 1</a> shows significant factors&#44; determined by their standardized coefficient <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">&#946;</span>&#8217;s&#44; which are responsible for daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 in three social distancing regimes&#46;</p><p id="par0045" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Each country has different significant factors in determining the daily COVID-19 cases&#46; Malaysia&#44; for example&#44; applies a full closed mode&#46; The significant factors are MI-4&#44; T-14&#44; T-8&#44; T-14&#42;MI-7&#46; Here&#44; the mobility index has a stronger effect than testing efforts in determining COVID-19 cases in view of the standardized coefficient <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">&#946;</span>&#8217;s&#46; The Malaysian cases show that there is a negative correlation between COVID-19 cases and the mobility index&#46; If more people stay at home means less social interaction between people&#46; This will result in reducing the confirmed COVID-19 cases&#46;</p><p id="par0050" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Republic of Korea or South Korea with partly closed mode has three significant factors MI-1&#44; T-5&#44; T-5&#42;MI-1&#46; South Korea has mobility index as a stronger effect but indicates a positive correlation with COVID-19 cases&#46; South Korea applied mitigation strategies such as large-scale testing and tracing in the early stage rather than suppression&#46; When this country has the second largest confirmed cases in the world&#44; on February 23&#44; the Korean government has raised the COVID-19 alert level to the highest &#40;Level 4&#41; along with the enactment of social distancing measures&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0220"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">19</span></a> However&#44; despite the rapid implementation of a massive detection strategy&#44; South Korea is successful in responding the epidemics&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs" href="#bib0145"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">4&#44;20</span></a></p><p id="par0055" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Japan has eight significant predictors dominated by mobility indices&#44; MI-1&#44; MI 0&#44; MI-4&#44; MI-9&#44; MI 0&#42;MI-9&#44; T-5&#44; T-1&#44; T-5&#42;MI-4&#46; Again&#44; the mobility index is more important than that of the number of test conducted in determining COVID-19&#46; Japan conducts their own model in response to COVID-19&#44; using the cluster-based approach and behavioral changes that mostly related to Japanese tradition&#46; Japanese has the habit of wearing masks and practicing the non-physical contact etiquette <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0230"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">21</span></a> and social distancing measures&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0235"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">22</span></a></p><p id="par0060" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Of three social distancing regimes&#44; it&#39;s demonstrated that the mobility index plays an important role compared with testing&#44; despite each model consists of coupled factors combining both&#46; This result seems to assert the nature of SARS-CoV-2 as high transmissibility virus which has a range of basic reproduction number from 2&#46;8 to 5&#46;5 in the absence of full quarantine and social distancing measures&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0240"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">23</span></a> Experience from past epidemics&#44; in the absence of effective intervention and supportive healthcare system&#44; a variety of non-pharmaceutical interventions are proven to successful in reducing case numbers&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0240"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">23</span></a> It means that isolating&#44; quarantine&#44; contact tracing&#44; social distancing&#44; travel restriction&#44; non-essential facility closure&#44; and avoiding all activities in a large group have shown to be effective ways in responding to the outbreak when implemented early in the epidemic&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs" href="#bib0240"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">23&#8211;25</span></a></p><p id="par0065" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall"><a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#fig0010">Fig&#46; 2</a> shows the comparison between observed and the predicted daily confirmed COVID-19 cases&#46; Note the different range of time depending on recorded data for each country&#46; Note also that&#44; each country has its own epidemic curve&#46; For instance&#44; South Korea has its cases peaks in late February while Japan just entered its peak at the beginning of April&#46; Even though the model&#39;s predictability is above 75&#37;&#44; the model fails to predict the flat peak in Malaysia&#44; the highest peak-level in Korea and decreased cases in Japan&#46;</p><elsevierMultimedia ident="fig0010"></elsevierMultimedia></span><span id="sec0035" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0065">Conclusions</span><p id="par0070" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">All models predictability for the three countries with different social distancing regimes are above 75&#37;&#46; The mobility index plays more important role than the number of testing in determining COVID-19 cases&#46;</p></span><span id="sec0040" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0070">Supplementary data&#58; covid-19 data</span><p id="par0075" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">The supplementary data can be found on this github repository&#58; <a href="https://github.com/andika9807/supplementary_data_mobility">Https&#58;&#47;&#47;github&#46;com&#47;andika9807&#47;supplementary&#95;data&#95;mobility</a>&#46;</p></span><span id="sec0045" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0075">Conflicts of interest</span><p id="par0080" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">The authors declare no conflict of interest&#46;</p></span></span>"
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        "resumen" => "<span id="abst0005" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0010">Objective</span><p id="spar0005" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">The COVID-19 pandemic put enormous socio-economic pressures on most countries all over the world&#46; In order to contain the spread of the coronavirus&#44; governments implemented both pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions&#46; This simple modeling work aims to quantify the effect of three levels of social distancing and large-scale testing on daily COVID-19 cases in Malaysia&#44; Republic of Korea&#44; and Japan&#46;</p></span> <span id="abst0010" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0015">Method</span><p id="spar0010" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">The model uses a Stepwise Multiple Regression &#40;SWMR&#41; method for selecting lagged mobility index and testing correlated with daily cases based on a 0&#46;05 level of significance&#46;</p></span> <span id="abst0015" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0020">Result</span><p id="spar0015" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">The models&#39;s predictability ranges are from 75&#37; to 92&#37;&#46; It is also found that the mobility index plays a more important role&#44; in comparison to testing rates&#44; in determining daily confirmed cases&#46;</p></span> <span id="abst0020" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0025">Conclusion</span><p id="spar0020" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Behavioral changes that support physical distancing measures should be practiced to slow down the COVID-19 spreads&#46;</p></span>"
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                  \t\t\t\t" scope="col">Predictors&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t\t\t</th><th class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-head\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttop\n
                  \t\t\t\t" scope="col">Models&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t\t\t</th><th class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-head\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " colspan="2" align="center" valign="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttop\n
                  \t\t\t\t" scope="col" style="border-bottom: 2px solid black">Prediction skills</th></tr><tr title="table-row"><th class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-head\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="" valign="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttop\n
                  \t\t\t\t" scope="col" style="border-bottom: 2px solid black">&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t\t\t</th><th class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-head\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="" valign="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttop\n
                  \t\t\t\t" scope="col" style="border-bottom: 2px solid black">&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t\t\t</th><th class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-head\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="" valign="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttop\n
                  \t\t\t\t" scope="col" style="border-bottom: 2px solid black">&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t\t\t</th><th class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-head\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttop\n
                  \t\t\t\t" scope="col" style="border-bottom: 2px solid black">Predictability R2 &#40;&#37;&#41;&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t\t\t</th><th class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-head\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttop\n
                  \t\t\t\t" scope="col" style="border-bottom: 2px solid black">RMSE &#40;cases&#41;&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t\t\t</th></tr></thead><tbody title="tbody"><tr title="table-row"><td class="td-with-role" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t ; entry_with_role_rowhead " align="left" valign="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttop\n
                  \t\t\t\t">Malaysia&#58; 01&#47;03&#47;2020 &#8211; 12&#47;05&#47;2020 &#40;73 days&#41;&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttop\n
                  \t\t\t\t">MI-4 &#40;<span class="elsevierStyleItalic">&#946;</span><span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#61;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>3&#46;937&#41;&#44; T-14 &#40;<span class="elsevierStyleItalic">&#946;</span><span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#61;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>0&#46;023&#41;&#44; T-8 &#40;<span class="elsevierStyleItalic">&#946;</span><span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#61;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>0&#46;006&#41;&#44; T-14&#42;MI-7 &#40;<span class="elsevierStyleItalic">&#946;</span><span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#61;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>0&#46;001&#41;&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttop\n
                  \t\t\t\t">Daily cases<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#61;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#8722;4&#46;491&#42;MI-4<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#43;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>0&#46;031&#42;T-14<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#8722;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>0&#46;007&#42;T-8<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#43;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>0&#46;001&#42;T-14&#42;MI-7<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#8722;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>29&#46;375&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="char" valign="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttop\n
                  \t\t\t\t">75&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="char" valign="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttop\n
                  \t\t\t\t">32&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td></tr><tr title="table-row"><td class="td-with-role" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t ; entry_with_role_rowhead " align="left" valign="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttop\n
                  \t\t\t\t">Rep&#46; of Korea&#58; 20&#47;02&#47;2020&#8211;13&#47;05&#47;2020 &#40;84 days&#41;&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttop\n
                  \t\t\t\t">MI-1 &#40;<span class="elsevierStyleItalic">&#946;</span><span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#61;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>13&#46;832&#41;&#44; T-5 &#40;<span class="elsevierStyleItalic">&#946;</span><span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#61;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>0&#46;024&#41;&#44; T-5&#42;MI-1 &#40;<span class="elsevierStyleItalic">&#946;</span><span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#61;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>0&#46;004&#41;&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttop\n
                  \t\t\t\t">Daily cases<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#61;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>89&#46;669&#42;MI-1<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#8722;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>0&#46;183&#42;T-5<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#8722;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>0&#46;011&#42;T-5&#42;MI-1<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#43;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>1527&#46;6&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="char" valign="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttop\n
                  \t\t\t\t">84&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="char" valign="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttop\n
                  \t\t\t\t">75&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td></tr><tr title="table-row"><td class="td-with-role" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t ; entry_with_role_rowhead " align="left" valign="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttop\n
                  \t\t\t\t">Japan&#58; 17&#47;02&#47;2020 &#8211;10&#47;05&#47;2020 &#40;84 days&#41;&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttop\n
                  \t\t\t\t">MI-1 &#40;<span class="elsevierStyleItalic">&#946;</span><span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#61;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>151&#46;287&#41;&#44; MI 0 &#40;<span class="elsevierStyleItalic">&#946;</span><span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#61;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>92&#46;173&#41;&#44; MI-4 &#40;<span class="elsevierStyleItalic">&#946;</span><span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#61;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>72&#46;858&#41;&#44; MI-9 &#40;<span class="elsevierStyleItalic">&#946;</span><span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#61;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>29&#46;384&#41;&#44; MI0&#42;MI-9 &#40;<span class="elsevierStyleItalic">&#946;</span><span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#61;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>1&#46;247&#41; T-5 &#40;<span class="elsevierStyleItalic">&#946;</span><span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#61;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>0&#46;153&#41;&#44; T-1 &#40;<span class="elsevierStyleItalic">&#946;</span><span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#61;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>0&#46;074&#41;&#44; T-5&#42;MI-4 &#40;<span class="elsevierStyleItalic">&#946;</span><span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#61;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>0&#46;008&#41;&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="left" valign="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttop\n
                  \t\t\t\t">Daily cases<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#61;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#8722;167&#46;82&#42;MI-1<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#43;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>105&#46;8&#42;MI0<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#43;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>71&#46;14&#42;MI-4<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#8722;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>31&#46;28&#42;MI-9<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#8722;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>1&#46;14&#42;MI0&#42;MI-9<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#8722;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>0&#46;17&#42;T-5<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#43;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>0&#46;134&#42;T-1<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#8722;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>0&#46;006&#42;T-5&#42;MI-4<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#8722;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>120&#46;61&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="char" valign="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttop\n
                  \t\t\t\t">92&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td><td class="td" title="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttable-entry\n
                  \t\t\t\t  " align="char" valign="\n
                  \t\t\t\t\ttop\n
                  \t\t\t\t">58&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
                  \t\t\t\t</td></tr></tbody></table>
                  """
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        "descripcion" => array:1 [
          "en" => "<p id="spar0035" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">SWMR model using lagged Mobility Index &#40;MI&#41; lagged Testing &#40;T&#41; and their associated skill&#46;</p>"
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        "texto" => "<p id="par0085" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">We thank the institute for health metrics and evaluation for providing the dataset of daily confirmed cases of covid-19&#44; daily covid-19 tests&#44; and the mobility indices of Malaysia&#44; South Korea&#44; and Japan available to the public&#46;</p>"
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