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    "textoCompleto" => "<span class="elsevierStyleSections"><span id="sec0005" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0035">Introduction</span><p id="par0005" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Coronavirus Disease 2019 &#40;COVID-19&#41; pandemic&#44; caused by SARS-CoV-2 virus&#44;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0175"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">1</span></a> brings about multiple disruptive effects in our normal life&#44; mainly in health and socio-economic aspects&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs" href="#bib0180"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">2&#8211;6</span></a> The transmission is facilitated both by symptomatic and asymptomatic infected individuals&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs" href="#bib0205"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">7&#44;8</span></a> The high transmissibility of this virus<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs" href="#bib0215"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">9&#44;10</span></a> has created various responses from governments to stop or at least to slow down its spreading&#46; This leads to most countries taking aggressive quarantine and lockdown measures&#46; China&#39;s lockdown measure&#44; for example&#44; demonstrates that the response is effective to slow down the spread of COVID-19&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0225"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">11</span></a> In addition&#44; China also applied other means of controlling this pandemic such as&#58; travel restrictions&#44; closing entertainment venues&#44; and banning public gatherings during the early outbreak&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs" href="#bib0230"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">12&#44;13</span></a> Travel restrictions&#44; however&#44; may be less effective once the outbreak is more widespread&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0240"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">14</span></a> There is also a contention that increasing number of daily coronavirus cases are caused by high testing frequency&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs" href="#bib0245"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">15&#44;16</span></a></p><p id="par0010" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">In this work&#44; virus containment and testing efforts in India and Indonesia are used in modeling the daily Covid-19 cases&#46; India applies several measures such as sealing the borders by canceling almost all travelling visas&#44; closing schools and colleges in certain states&#44; and applying a nation-wide lockdown starts in effect on 25th March till 3rd May 2020&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs" href="#bib0255"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">17&#44;18</span></a> Indonesia&#39;s government has resisted a full national lockdown&#46; Instead&#44; a Large-Scale Social Restrictions &#40;in Indonesian language&#58; Pembatasan Sosial Berskala Besar&#41; was approved on the 31st March 2020&#46; DKI Jakarta province was the first to practice it on the 7th April 2020&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0265"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">19</span></a> On the 13th April 2020&#44; central government required provincial and regional governments to follow national policies in their response to COVID-19&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0270"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">20</span></a> On the 24<span class="elsevierStyleSup">th</span> May 2020&#44; the president of Indonesia announced the term &#8220;new normal&#8221; for economic recovery badly affected by the large-scale social restrictions&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0275"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">21</span></a> The &#8220;new normal&#8221; is a condition where people should apply strict health protocol such as&#58; wearing face masks&#44; maintaining a physical distance&#44; and washing hands with sanitizer&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0280"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">22</span></a></p><p id="par0015" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">The model uses for examining the effect of testing and containment efforts on daily Covid-9 confirmed cases is a Stepwise Multiple Regression &#40;SWMR&#41;&#46; The inputs or predictors are lagged daily stringency indices &#40;SI&#41; and COVID-19 tests &#40;T&#41;&#46; The stringency index is a composite measure of several response indicators that includes school closures&#44; workplace closures&#44; travel bans&#44; public gathering restrictions&#44; and stay at home requirements&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0285"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">23</span></a> The model is developed and tested for data before the epidemic peak&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0290"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">24</span></a> The model is then verified using two prediction skill metrics&#58; predictability &#40;R2&#41; and root mean squared error &#40;RMSE&#41;&#46; Here R is the correlation coefficient between observations and predictions&#46;</p></span><span id="sec0010" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0040">Methods</span><span id="sec0015" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0045">Study sites</span><p id="par0020" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">This work attempts to determine significant factors affecting the daily COVID-19 cases in Indonesia and India&#46; All datasets for developing the model are using observations from 23rd March to 27th May 2020&#46;</p></span><span id="sec0020" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0050">Data acquisition</span><p id="par0025" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">All data used in developing the model are publicly available&#46; These data sets can be accessed from the Our World in Data website&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0295"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">25</span></a> These data sets are converted into days-lagged data&#46; The lagged days are from the previous 14-days to the present day&#46; For instance&#44; SI-14 and SI0 represents the SI value at 14 days before the present day and the SI at the present day&#44; respectively &#40;see <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#tbl0005">Table 1</a>&#41;&#46; Both the lagged daily COVID-19 tests and daily COVID-19 cases are smoothed using a 7-day moving average&#46;</p><elsevierMultimedia ident="tbl0005"></elsevierMultimedia><p id="par0030" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">All data sets are provided in Supplementary data which includes&#58; lagged daily stringency indices&#44; lagged daily COVID-19 tests&#44; and daily COVID-19 cases&#46; The stringency indices are based on a combination of several policies taken by governments such as school closures&#44; travel bans&#44; public gathering restrictions&#44; etc&#46; on a scale from 0 to 100&#46; Here the scale of 100 is the strictest response&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0285"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">23</span></a></p><p id="par0035" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Associated with daily COVID-19 cases based on <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">p</span>-value of 0&#46;01&#46; The prediction skill of models is summarized in <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#tbl0005">Table 1</a>&#46;</p></span><span id="sec0025" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0055">Data modelling and prediction</span><p id="par0040" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Our model uses lagged daily Stringency Indices &#40;SI&#41; and lagged daily Testing &#40;T&#41; as predictors and daily COVID-19 cases as its predictant&#46; The predictor&#47;predictant pairs are modelled using a Stepwise Multiple Regression &#40;SWMR&#59; see <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#fig0005">Fig&#46; 1</a>&#41; available in MATLAB&#174;&#46; The SWMR selects the significant predictors based on the <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">p</span>-value of 0&#46;01&#46; The selected predictors are arranged in descending order based on their standardized &#946; coefficients where the strongest predictor appears first in <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#tbl0005">Table 1</a>&#46;</p><elsevierMultimedia ident="fig0005"></elsevierMultimedia></span><span id="sec0030" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0060">Prediction skill assessment</span><p id="par0045" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">The skills of both models described above in predicting the daily COVID-19 cases are measured using predictability&#8212;the coefficient of determination R2 and RMSE&#46; The modelling scheme and the model skills are presented in <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#fig0005">Fig&#46; 1</a> and <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#tbl0005">Table 1</a>&#46;</p></span></span><span id="sec0035" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0065">Result and discussion</span><p id="par0050" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">The prediction skill of the models used for the Indonesia and India daily COVID-19 confirmed cases are summarized in <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#tbl0005">Table 1</a>&#46; <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#tbl0005">Table 1</a> shows significant factors that are related to the daily COVID-19 cases&#46; It also shows the predictability of models is high&#44; i&#46;e&#46; above 90&#37; &#40;see <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#fig0010">Fig&#46; 2</a>&#41;&#46; The strength of the significant factors is determined by the standardized coefficient <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">&#946;</span>&#46;</p><elsevierMultimedia ident="fig0010"></elsevierMultimedia><p id="par0055" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">The significant factors affecting daily COVID-19 cases in Indonesia are the daily COVID-19 test&#44; i&#46;e&#46; T<span class="elsevierStyleInf">0</span>&#44; T<span class="elsevierStyleInf">&#8722;8</span>&#44; and T<span class="elsevierStyleInf">&#8722;14</span>&#46; It is found that there is a positive correlation between the numbers of testing daily confirmed cases&#46; This means that as the number of daily COVID-19 tests increases&#44; the number of daily COVID-19 cases rises&#46; On the other hand&#44; it is shown that the Stringency indices effects on daily cases are found to be insignificant&#46; This shows that many people violate the social restriction &#40;PSBB&#41; order&#46; This could be due to their effort to earn some money for the family&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0300"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">26</span></a> In addition&#44; applying long period of social distancing and stay at home measures causes loneliness and isolation&#46; As a result&#44; people are forced to leave their homes&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0305"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">27</span></a> This brings a dire consequence to Indonesia&#46; Its daily confirmed cases are still on the rise and as of the 5th of September&#44; the daily case is 3128&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0310"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">28</span></a></p><p id="par0060" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">The India model has different sets of significant factors relating to the daily confirmed cases&#46; These factors involve both linear and nonlinear terms&#46; The linear terms are&#58; the previous fifth&#44; second&#44; and fourth days Stringency indices SI<span class="elsevierStyleInf">&#8722;5</span>&#44; SI<span class="elsevierStyleInf">&#8722;2</span>&#44; SI<span class="elsevierStyleInf">&#8722;4</span> and the present testing T0&#46; The nonlinear terms are the multiplication between two inputs such as&#58; SI<span class="elsevierStyleInf">&#8722;2</span><span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#215;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>SI<span class="elsevierStyleInf">&#8722;5</span>&#44; T<span class="elsevierStyleInf">0</span><span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#215;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>SI<span class="elsevierStyleInf">&#8722;4</span>&#44; and T<span class="elsevierStyleInf">0</span><span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#215;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>T<span class="elsevierStyleInf">&#8722;14</span>&#46; There are negative correlations between COVID-19 cases and stringency indices&#46; The daily COVID-19 cases for India is also still rising to 90&#44;600 cases as of the 5th September&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0315"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">29</span></a> This rising could be due to people&#44; who lost their livelihoods&#44; abandoned the government rules of staying at home&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0320"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">30</span></a> On 8th June 2020&#44; India also slowly began to open up from the coronavirus lockdown &#40;termed as &#8220;unlock 1&#46;0&#8221;&#41; with an economic focus&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0325"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">31</span></a></p><p id="par0065" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Two types of containment measures differently practised by Indonesia and India fail to curb the spread of Covid-19&#46; In order to slow-down the virus spread&#44; they have to combine these measures of testing followed by contact-tracing and treatment of the sick&#44; large-scale social restriction and other NPI &#40;non-pharmaceutical interventions&#41; such as face-masking&#44; physical distancing&#44; and hand-washing&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs" href="#bib0330"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">32&#8211;34</span></a></p></span><span id="sec0040" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0070">Conclusions</span><p id="par0070" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">High predictability is found in modelling the daily COVID-19 cases in Indonesia and India before their epidemic peaks&#46; Increasing number of daily COVID-19 cases in Indonesia is caused by having more testing while the stringency indices are the leading factors in determining the daily COVID-19 cases in India&#46; Both containment measures&#44; i&#46;e&#46; testing and strict movement&#44; however&#44; fail to slow-down the virus spread&#46; The combination of these measures with other non-pharmaceutical interventions is highly recommended in order to control Covid-19&#46;</p></span><span id="sec0045" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0075">Supplementary Data</span><p id="par0075" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">The supplementary data &#40;the datasets of lagged daily stringency indices&#44; lagged daily COVID-19 tests&#44; and daily COVID-19 cases&#41; can be found on this GitHub repository&#58; <a href="https://github.com/Andika9807/supplementary_data_stringency">https&#58;&#47;&#47;github&#46;com&#47;Andika9807&#47;supplementary&#95;data&#95;stringency</a>&#46;</p></span><span id="sec0050" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0080">Conflicts of interest</span><p id="par0080" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest&#46;</p></span></span>"
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        "resumen" => "<span id="abst0005" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0010">Objective</span><p id="spar0005" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted people&#39;s normal life as a result of strict policies applied to slow down the pandemic&#46; To find out how extensive the virus spread is&#44; most countries increase their daily testing rates&#46;</p></span> <span id="abst0010" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0015">Method</span><p id="spar0010" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">This simple modelling work uses stringency index and daily testing &#40;including the lagged version up to the previous 14 days&#41; to predict daily COVID-19 cases in India and Indonesia&#46; A Stepwise Multiple Regression &#40;SWMR&#41; subroutine is used in this modelling to select factors based on a 0&#46;01 significant level affecting daily COVID-19 cases before the epidemic peaks&#46;</p></span> <span id="abst0015" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0020">Result</span><p id="spar0015" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">The models have high predictability close to 94&#37; &#40;Indonesia&#41; and 99&#37; &#40;India&#41;&#46; Increasing number of daily COVID-19 cases in Indonesia is associated with the country&#39;s increased testing capacity&#46; On the other hand&#44; stringency indices play more important role in determining India&#39;s daily COVID-19 cases&#46;</p></span> <span id="abst0020" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0025">Cloclusion</span><p id="spar0020" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Our finding shows that one question remains to be answered as to why testing and strict policy differ in determining daily cases in both Asian countries&#46;</p></span>"
        "secciones" => array:4 [
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            "identificador" => "abst0005"
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          3 => array:2 [
            "identificador" => "abst0020"
            "titulo" => "Cloclusion"
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        ]
      ]
    ]
    "NotaPie" => array:1 [
      0 => array:2 [
        "etiqueta" => "&#9734;"
        "nota" => "<p class="elsevierStyleNotepara" id="npar0005">Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 3rd International Nursing&#44; Health Science Students &#38; Health Care Professionals Conference&#46; Full-text and the content of it is under responsibility of authors of the article&#46;</p>"
      ]
    ]
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      0 => array:7 [
        "identificador" => "fig0005"
        "etiqueta" => "Fig&#46; 1"
        "tipo" => "MULTIMEDIAFIGURA"
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        "mostrarDisplay" => false
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          "en" => "<p id="spar0025" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Our models use lagged daily stringency index &#40;SI&#41; and lagged daily testing &#40;T&#41; and their associated skill as predictors and daily COVID-19 cases used as model inputs or predictors&#46; Our models use the SWMR &#40;stepwise multiple regression&#41; subroutine for selecting a set of significant predictors&#46;</p>"
        ]
      ]
      1 => array:7 [
        "identificador" => "fig0010"
        "etiqueta" => "Fig&#46; 2"
        "tipo" => "MULTIMEDIAFIGURA"
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        "figura" => array:1 [
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          "en" => "<p id="spar0030" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Observed and modeled daily COVID-19 cases from 23rd March 2020 to 27th May 2020 in Indonesia &#40;a&#41; and India &#40;b&#41;&#46;</p>"
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                  \t\t\t\t" scope="col">Country&#47;period&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
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                  \t\t\t\t" scope="col" style="border-bottom: 2px solid black">&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
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                  \t\t\t\t" scope="col" style="border-bottom: 2px solid black">&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
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                  \t\t\t\t" scope="col" style="border-bottom: 2px solid black">&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
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                  \t\t\t\t  " align="char" valign="\n
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                  \t\t\t\t">90&nbsp;\t\t\t\t\t\t\n
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          "en" => "<p id="spar0035" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Lagged predictors used in the models sketched in <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#fig0005">Fig&#46; 1</a> and their resulting skill in predicting the daily COVID-19 cases&#46; The model&#39;s skill is determined using the determination coefficient R2 and RMSE&#46;</p>"
        ]
      ]
    ]
    "bibliografia" => array:2 [
      "titulo" => "References"
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          "identificador" => "bibs0015"
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                  "contribucion" => array:1 [
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                      ]
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                  ]
                  "host" => array:1 [
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                      "Revista" => array:7 [
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                        "link" => array:1 [
                          0 => array:2 [
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                  "host" => array:1 [
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                      "autores" => array:1 [
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                          "etal" => true
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                  "host" => array:1 [
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                  "contribucion" => array:1 [
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                  "host" => array:1 [
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                          "etal" => true
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              "identificador" => "bib0200"
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        "texto" => "<p id="par0085" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">We thank Our World in Data for providing the daily COVID-19 cases&#44; daily COVID-19 tests&#44; and the stringency indices of Indonesia and India through its website available for the public&#46;</p>"
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Factors affecting COVID-19 cases before epidemic peaks
Andikaa, P. Wulandaria, Halmar Halideb,
Autor para correspondencia
a Earth Sciences Department, FITB, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung, Indonesia
b Geophysics Department, FMIPA, Universitas Hasanuddin, Makassar, Indonesia
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    "textoCompleto" => "<span class="elsevierStyleSections"><span id="sec0005" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0035">Introduction</span><p id="par0005" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Coronavirus Disease 2019 &#40;COVID-19&#41; pandemic&#44; caused by SARS-CoV-2 virus&#44;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0175"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">1</span></a> brings about multiple disruptive effects in our normal life&#44; mainly in health and socio-economic aspects&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs" href="#bib0180"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">2&#8211;6</span></a> The transmission is facilitated both by symptomatic and asymptomatic infected individuals&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs" href="#bib0205"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">7&#44;8</span></a> The high transmissibility of this virus<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs" href="#bib0215"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">9&#44;10</span></a> has created various responses from governments to stop or at least to slow down its spreading&#46; This leads to most countries taking aggressive quarantine and lockdown measures&#46; China&#39;s lockdown measure&#44; for example&#44; demonstrates that the response is effective to slow down the spread of COVID-19&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0225"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">11</span></a> In addition&#44; China also applied other means of controlling this pandemic such as&#58; travel restrictions&#44; closing entertainment venues&#44; and banning public gatherings during the early outbreak&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs" href="#bib0230"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">12&#44;13</span></a> Travel restrictions&#44; however&#44; may be less effective once the outbreak is more widespread&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0240"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">14</span></a> There is also a contention that increasing number of daily coronavirus cases are caused by high testing frequency&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs" href="#bib0245"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">15&#44;16</span></a></p><p id="par0010" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">In this work&#44; virus containment and testing efforts in India and Indonesia are used in modeling the daily Covid-19 cases&#46; India applies several measures such as sealing the borders by canceling almost all travelling visas&#44; closing schools and colleges in certain states&#44; and applying a nation-wide lockdown starts in effect on 25th March till 3rd May 2020&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs" href="#bib0255"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">17&#44;18</span></a> Indonesia&#39;s government has resisted a full national lockdown&#46; Instead&#44; a Large-Scale Social Restrictions &#40;in Indonesian language&#58; Pembatasan Sosial Berskala Besar&#41; was approved on the 31st March 2020&#46; DKI Jakarta province was the first to practice it on the 7th April 2020&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0265"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">19</span></a> On the 13th April 2020&#44; central government required provincial and regional governments to follow national policies in their response to COVID-19&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0270"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">20</span></a> On the 24<span class="elsevierStyleSup">th</span> May 2020&#44; the president of Indonesia announced the term &#8220;new normal&#8221; for economic recovery badly affected by the large-scale social restrictions&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0275"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">21</span></a> The &#8220;new normal&#8221; is a condition where people should apply strict health protocol such as&#58; wearing face masks&#44; maintaining a physical distance&#44; and washing hands with sanitizer&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0280"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">22</span></a></p><p id="par0015" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">The model uses for examining the effect of testing and containment efforts on daily Covid-9 confirmed cases is a Stepwise Multiple Regression &#40;SWMR&#41;&#46; The inputs or predictors are lagged daily stringency indices &#40;SI&#41; and COVID-19 tests &#40;T&#41;&#46; The stringency index is a composite measure of several response indicators that includes school closures&#44; workplace closures&#44; travel bans&#44; public gathering restrictions&#44; and stay at home requirements&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0285"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">23</span></a> The model is developed and tested for data before the epidemic peak&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0290"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">24</span></a> The model is then verified using two prediction skill metrics&#58; predictability &#40;R2&#41; and root mean squared error &#40;RMSE&#41;&#46; Here R is the correlation coefficient between observations and predictions&#46;</p></span><span id="sec0010" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0040">Methods</span><span id="sec0015" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0045">Study sites</span><p id="par0020" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">This work attempts to determine significant factors affecting the daily COVID-19 cases in Indonesia and India&#46; All datasets for developing the model are using observations from 23rd March to 27th May 2020&#46;</p></span><span id="sec0020" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0050">Data acquisition</span><p id="par0025" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">All data used in developing the model are publicly available&#46; These data sets can be accessed from the Our World in Data website&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0295"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">25</span></a> These data sets are converted into days-lagged data&#46; The lagged days are from the previous 14-days to the present day&#46; For instance&#44; SI-14 and SI0 represents the SI value at 14 days before the present day and the SI at the present day&#44; respectively &#40;see <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#tbl0005">Table 1</a>&#41;&#46; Both the lagged daily COVID-19 tests and daily COVID-19 cases are smoothed using a 7-day moving average&#46;</p><elsevierMultimedia ident="tbl0005"></elsevierMultimedia><p id="par0030" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">All data sets are provided in Supplementary data which includes&#58; lagged daily stringency indices&#44; lagged daily COVID-19 tests&#44; and daily COVID-19 cases&#46; The stringency indices are based on a combination of several policies taken by governments such as school closures&#44; travel bans&#44; public gathering restrictions&#44; etc&#46; on a scale from 0 to 100&#46; Here the scale of 100 is the strictest response&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0285"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">23</span></a></p><p id="par0035" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Associated with daily COVID-19 cases based on <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">p</span>-value of 0&#46;01&#46; The prediction skill of models is summarized in <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#tbl0005">Table 1</a>&#46;</p></span><span id="sec0025" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0055">Data modelling and prediction</span><p id="par0040" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Our model uses lagged daily Stringency Indices &#40;SI&#41; and lagged daily Testing &#40;T&#41; as predictors and daily COVID-19 cases as its predictant&#46; The predictor&#47;predictant pairs are modelled using a Stepwise Multiple Regression &#40;SWMR&#59; see <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#fig0005">Fig&#46; 1</a>&#41; available in MATLAB&#174;&#46; The SWMR selects the significant predictors based on the <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">p</span>-value of 0&#46;01&#46; The selected predictors are arranged in descending order based on their standardized &#946; coefficients where the strongest predictor appears first in <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#tbl0005">Table 1</a>&#46;</p><elsevierMultimedia ident="fig0005"></elsevierMultimedia></span><span id="sec0030" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0060">Prediction skill assessment</span><p id="par0045" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">The skills of both models described above in predicting the daily COVID-19 cases are measured using predictability&#8212;the coefficient of determination R2 and RMSE&#46; The modelling scheme and the model skills are presented in <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#fig0005">Fig&#46; 1</a> and <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#tbl0005">Table 1</a>&#46;</p></span></span><span id="sec0035" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0065">Result and discussion</span><p id="par0050" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">The prediction skill of the models used for the Indonesia and India daily COVID-19 confirmed cases are summarized in <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#tbl0005">Table 1</a>&#46; <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#tbl0005">Table 1</a> shows significant factors that are related to the daily COVID-19 cases&#46; It also shows the predictability of models is high&#44; i&#46;e&#46; above 90&#37; &#40;see <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#fig0010">Fig&#46; 2</a>&#41;&#46; The strength of the significant factors is determined by the standardized coefficient <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">&#946;</span>&#46;</p><elsevierMultimedia ident="fig0010"></elsevierMultimedia><p id="par0055" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">The significant factors affecting daily COVID-19 cases in Indonesia are the daily COVID-19 test&#44; i&#46;e&#46; T<span class="elsevierStyleInf">0</span>&#44; T<span class="elsevierStyleInf">&#8722;8</span>&#44; and T<span class="elsevierStyleInf">&#8722;14</span>&#46; It is found that there is a positive correlation between the numbers of testing daily confirmed cases&#46; This means that as the number of daily COVID-19 tests increases&#44; the number of daily COVID-19 cases rises&#46; On the other hand&#44; it is shown that the Stringency indices effects on daily cases are found to be insignificant&#46; This shows that many people violate the social restriction &#40;PSBB&#41; order&#46; This could be due to their effort to earn some money for the family&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0300"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">26</span></a> In addition&#44; applying long period of social distancing and stay at home measures causes loneliness and isolation&#46; As a result&#44; people are forced to leave their homes&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0305"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">27</span></a> This brings a dire consequence to Indonesia&#46; Its daily confirmed cases are still on the rise and as of the 5th of September&#44; the daily case is 3128&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0310"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">28</span></a></p><p id="par0060" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">The India model has different sets of significant factors relating to the daily confirmed cases&#46; These factors involve both linear and nonlinear terms&#46; The linear terms are&#58; the previous fifth&#44; second&#44; and fourth days Stringency indices SI<span class="elsevierStyleInf">&#8722;5</span>&#44; SI<span class="elsevierStyleInf">&#8722;2</span>&#44; SI<span class="elsevierStyleInf">&#8722;4</span> and the present testing T0&#46; The nonlinear terms are the multiplication between two inputs such as&#58; SI<span class="elsevierStyleInf">&#8722;2</span><span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#215;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>SI<span class="elsevierStyleInf">&#8722;5</span>&#44; T<span class="elsevierStyleInf">0</span><span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#215;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>SI<span class="elsevierStyleInf">&#8722;4</span>&#44; and T<span class="elsevierStyleInf">0</span><span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#215;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>T<span class="elsevierStyleInf">&#8722;14</span>&#46; There are negative correlations between COVID-19 cases and stringency indices&#46; The daily COVID-19 cases for India is also still rising to 90&#44;600 cases as of the 5th September&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0315"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">29</span></a> This rising could be due to people&#44; who lost their livelihoods&#44; abandoned the government rules of staying at home&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0320"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">30</span></a> On 8th June 2020&#44; India also slowly began to open up from the coronavirus lockdown &#40;termed as &#8220;unlock 1&#46;0&#8221;&#41; with an economic focus&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0325"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">31</span></a></p><p id="par0065" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Two types of containment measures differently practised by Indonesia and India fail to curb the spread of Covid-19&#46; In order to slow-down the virus spread&#44; they have to combine these measures of testing followed by contact-tracing and treatment of the sick&#44; large-scale social restriction and other NPI &#40;non-pharmaceutical interventions&#41; such as face-masking&#44; physical distancing&#44; and hand-washing&#46;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs" href="#bib0330"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">32&#8211;34</span></a></p></span><span id="sec0040" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0070">Conclusions</span><p id="par0070" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">High predictability is found in modelling the daily COVID-19 cases in Indonesia and India before their epidemic peaks&#46; Increasing number of daily COVID-19 cases in Indonesia is caused by having more testing while the stringency indices are the leading factors in determining the daily COVID-19 cases in India&#46; Both containment measures&#44; i&#46;e&#46; testing and strict movement&#44; however&#44; fail to slow-down the virus spread&#46; The combination of these measures with other non-pharmaceutical interventions is highly recommended in order to control Covid-19&#46;</p></span><span id="sec0045" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0075">Supplementary Data</span><p id="par0075" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">The supplementary data &#40;the datasets of lagged daily stringency indices&#44; lagged daily COVID-19 tests&#44; and daily COVID-19 cases&#41; can be found on this GitHub repository&#58; <a href="https://github.com/Andika9807/supplementary_data_stringency">https&#58;&#47;&#47;github&#46;com&#47;Andika9807&#47;supplementary&#95;data&#95;stringency</a>&#46;</p></span><span id="sec0050" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0080">Conflicts of interest</span><p id="par0080" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest&#46;</p></span></span>"
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          "titulo" => "Introduction"
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              "titulo" => "Data modelling and prediction"
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              "titulo" => "Prediction skill assessment"
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          "titulo" => "Result and discussion"
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          "titulo" => "Supplementary Data"
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          "identificador" => "sec0050"
          "titulo" => "Conflicts of interest"
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        8 => array:2 [
          "identificador" => "xack576315"
          "titulo" => "Acknowledgments"
        ]
        9 => array:1 [
          "titulo" => "References"
        ]
      ]
    ]
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    "fechaRecibido" => "2021-06-28"
    "fechaAceptado" => "2021-07-30"
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        0 => array:4 [
          "clase" => "keyword"
          "titulo" => "Keywords"
          "identificador" => "xpalclavsec1456587"
          "palabras" => array:2 [
            0 => "Pandemic"
            1 => "COVID-19"
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      "en" => array:3 [
        "titulo" => "Abstract"
        "resumen" => "<span id="abst0005" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0010">Objective</span><p id="spar0005" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted people&#39;s normal life as a result of strict policies applied to slow down the pandemic&#46; To find out how extensive the virus spread is&#44; most countries increase their daily testing rates&#46;</p></span> <span id="abst0010" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0015">Method</span><p id="spar0010" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">This simple modelling work uses stringency index and daily testing &#40;including the lagged version up to the previous 14 days&#41; to predict daily COVID-19 cases in India and Indonesia&#46; A Stepwise Multiple Regression &#40;SWMR&#41; subroutine is used in this modelling to select factors based on a 0&#46;01 significant level affecting daily COVID-19 cases before the epidemic peaks&#46;</p></span> <span id="abst0015" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0020">Result</span><p id="spar0015" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">The models have high predictability close to 94&#37; &#40;Indonesia&#41; and 99&#37; &#40;India&#41;&#46; Increasing number of daily COVID-19 cases in Indonesia is associated with the country&#39;s increased testing capacity&#46; On the other hand&#44; stringency indices play more important role in determining India&#39;s daily COVID-19 cases&#46;</p></span> <span id="abst0020" class="elsevierStyleSection elsevierViewall"><span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle" id="sect0025">Cloclusion</span><p id="spar0020" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Our finding shows that one question remains to be answered as to why testing and strict policy differ in determining daily cases in both Asian countries&#46;</p></span>"
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      ]
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          "en" => "<p id="spar0025" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Our models use lagged daily stringency index &#40;SI&#41; and lagged daily testing &#40;T&#41; and their associated skill as predictors and daily COVID-19 cases used as model inputs or predictors&#46; Our models use the SWMR &#40;stepwise multiple regression&#41; subroutine for selecting a set of significant predictors&#46;</p>"
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          "en" => "<p id="spar0030" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Observed and modeled daily COVID-19 cases from 23rd March 2020 to 27th May 2020 in Indonesia &#40;a&#41; and India &#40;b&#41;&#46;</p>"
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          "en" => "<p id="spar0035" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Lagged predictors used in the models sketched in <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#fig0005">Fig&#46; 1</a> and their resulting skill in predicting the daily COVID-19 cases&#46; The model&#39;s skill is determined using the determination coefficient R2 and RMSE&#46;</p>"
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                      "titulo" => "A novel coronavirus outbreak of global health concern"
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                        0 => array:2 [
                          "etal" => true
                          "autores" => array:1 [
                            0 => "C&#46; Wang"
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                      "doi" => "10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30185-9"
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                        "tituloSerie" => "Lancet"
                        "fecha" => "2020"
                        "volumen" => "395"
                        "numero" => "10223"
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                            "url" => "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31986257"
                            "web" => "Medline"
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                  "contribucion" => array:1 [
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                      "titulo" => "Coronavirus&#58; covid-19 has killed more people than SARS and MERS combined&#44; despite lower case fatality rate"
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                          "autores" => array:1 [
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                            "url" => "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31996352"
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                      "titulo" => "The psychological impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on college students in China"
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                      "doi" => "10.1016/j.psychres.2020.112934"
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                      "titulo" => "First week of Unlock 1&#46; 0&#8211;here&#39;s what worked and what didn&#8217;t &#91;Internet&#93;"
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                      "doi" => "10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31142-9"
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                      "doi" => "10.1073/pnas.2116863118"
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                        "fecha" => "2021"
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        "titulo" => "Acknowledgments"
        "texto" => "<p id="par0085" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">We thank Our World in Data for providing the daily COVID-19 cases&#44; daily COVID-19 tests&#44; and the stringency indices of Indonesia and India through its website available for the public&#46;</p>"
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ISSN: 02139111
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