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        "titulo" => "Resumen"
        "resumen" => "<span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Introducci&#243;n</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">El objetivo de este breve art&#237;culo consiste en presentar los resultados de las proyecciones del impacto sobre el gasto sanitario p&#250;blico espa&#241;ol hasta el a&#241;o 2013 de los principales factores demogr&#225;ficos y tecnol&#243;gicos que pueden presionar las necesidades de gasto al alza&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Material y m&#233;todos</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">El crecimiento anual del gasto se estima empleando el m&#233;todo de la descomposici&#243;n de los factores del crecimiento en dos escenarios&#46; Los factores considerados fueron&#58; el factor demogr&#225;fico&#44; que incluye el efecto del aumento de la poblaci&#243;n y el del cambio en la estructura de edades &#40;envejecimiento progresivo&#41;&#59; el crecimiento del precio de los recursos utilizados en la producci&#243;n de servicios sanitarios por encima de la inflaci&#243;n general de la econom&#237;a&#59; y la prestaci&#243;n sanitaria real media &#40;intensidad de recursos y tecnolog&#237;a&#41;&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Resultados y discusi&#243;n</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">En 2013&#44; el gasto sanitario p&#250;blico se situar&#237;a entre el 5&#44;7 y el 6&#37; del PIB&#44; o sea&#44; como m&#237;nimo&#44; entre 0&#44;24 y 0&#44;53 puntos del PIB por encima de la cifra del a&#241;o 2003&#46; El factor con una mayor responsabilidad en el crecimiento del gasto sanitario p&#250;blico futuro continuar&#225; siendo previsiblemente la prestaci&#243;n sanitaria media&#44; seguido del factor demogr&#225;fico&#46; El crecimiento del gasto sanitario p&#250;blico rea hasta el a&#241;o 2013 seg&#250;n el escenario base de este estudio&#44; es compatible con un incremento real del 2&#44;5&#37; en el consumo real del resto de los bienes y servicios por la poblaci&#243;n espa&#241;ola&#46; Para financiar ese aumento del gasto sanitario p&#250;blico la poblaci&#243;n espa&#241;ola destinar&#237;a a esta finalidad menos del 7&#37; del aumento real de renta en los pr&#243;ximos 10 a&#241;os&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Conclusiones y perspectivas</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Sin ser menospreciable&#44; el ritmo esperado de crecimiento del PIB permite hacer frente sin dificultades al crecimiento atribuible a los factores demogr&#225;ficos&#46; El cambio en las tecnolog&#237;as sanitarias continuar&#225; siendo muy probablemente el principal factor causante del crecimiento del gasto p&#250;blico sanitario&#46;</p>"
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        "resumen" => "<span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Introduction</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">The object of this short paper is to present the results of Spanish public health care expenditures projections until 2013 according to the expected impact of the main demographic and technological health cost drivers&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Matherial and methods</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Future annual health expenditures are estimated using a simple method based on the decomposition of the past main growth factors in two scenarios&#46; The main cost drivers considered were the following&#58; demography&#44; which includes the increasing number of people and the impact of population ageing&#59; the increase in the price of health care inputs above the general price level&#59; and the impact of changes in medical practice related with expanding medical technology&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Results and discussion</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">In 2013&#44; public health care expenditure may be around 5&#46;7&#37; and 6&#37; of gross domestic product &#40;GDP&#41;&#59; that is&#44; at least&#44; between 0&#46;24 and 0&#46;53 additional GDP points will be spent on public health care&#46; The main factor responsible for the future expenditure increase will continue to be the increase in the average health service intensity&#44; followed by demographic factors&#46; In the base-case scenario&#44; public expenditure increase until 2013 will be compatible with a real 2&#46;5&#37; annual increase in consumption of non-health goods and services&#46; In order to finance the future costs&#44; the Spanish population will have to devote to public health expenditure less than 7&#37; of income increase until 2013&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Conclusion and perspectives</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Despite being important&#44; the expected Spanish GDP growth until 2013 may be enough to finance the increase in public health expenditure as a result of the impact of demographic changes&#46; Expanding medical technology is expected to continue being the main driver of future costs&#46;</p>"
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Parte III. Recursos asistenciales y utilización
¿Es la financiación sanitaria suficiente y adecuada?
Health care financing: is it enough and appropriate?
Jaume Puig-Junoy
Autor para correspondencia
jaume.puig@upf.edu

Correspondencia: Jaume Puig-Junoy. Universitat Pompeu Fabra. C/Trias Fargas 25-27. 08005 Barcelona. España.
Centre de Recerca en Economia i Salut (CRES). Departamento de Economía y Empresa. Universitat Pompeu Fabra. Barcelona. España
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        "resumen" => "<span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Introducci&#243;n</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">El objetivo de este breve art&#237;culo consiste en presentar los resultados de las proyecciones del impacto sobre el gasto sanitario p&#250;blico espa&#241;ol hasta el a&#241;o 2013 de los principales factores demogr&#225;ficos y tecnol&#243;gicos que pueden presionar las necesidades de gasto al alza&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Material y m&#233;todos</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">El crecimiento anual del gasto se estima empleando el m&#233;todo de la descomposici&#243;n de los factores del crecimiento en dos escenarios&#46; Los factores considerados fueron&#58; el factor demogr&#225;fico&#44; que incluye el efecto del aumento de la poblaci&#243;n y el del cambio en la estructura de edades &#40;envejecimiento progresivo&#41;&#59; el crecimiento del precio de los recursos utilizados en la producci&#243;n de servicios sanitarios por encima de la inflaci&#243;n general de la econom&#237;a&#59; y la prestaci&#243;n sanitaria real media &#40;intensidad de recursos y tecnolog&#237;a&#41;&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Resultados y discusi&#243;n</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">En 2013&#44; el gasto sanitario p&#250;blico se situar&#237;a entre el 5&#44;7 y el 6&#37; del PIB&#44; o sea&#44; como m&#237;nimo&#44; entre 0&#44;24 y 0&#44;53 puntos del PIB por encima de la cifra del a&#241;o 2003&#46; El factor con una mayor responsabilidad en el crecimiento del gasto sanitario p&#250;blico futuro continuar&#225; siendo previsiblemente la prestaci&#243;n sanitaria media&#44; seguido del factor demogr&#225;fico&#46; El crecimiento del gasto sanitario p&#250;blico rea hasta el a&#241;o 2013 seg&#250;n el escenario base de este estudio&#44; es compatible con un incremento real del 2&#44;5&#37; en el consumo real del resto de los bienes y servicios por la poblaci&#243;n espa&#241;ola&#46; Para financiar ese aumento del gasto sanitario p&#250;blico la poblaci&#243;n espa&#241;ola destinar&#237;a a esta finalidad menos del 7&#37; del aumento real de renta en los pr&#243;ximos 10 a&#241;os&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Conclusiones y perspectivas</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Sin ser menospreciable&#44; el ritmo esperado de crecimiento del PIB permite hacer frente sin dificultades al crecimiento atribuible a los factores demogr&#225;ficos&#46; El cambio en las tecnolog&#237;as sanitarias continuar&#225; siendo muy probablemente el principal factor causante del crecimiento del gasto p&#250;blico sanitario&#46;</p>"
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        "resumen" => "<span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Introduction</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">The object of this short paper is to present the results of Spanish public health care expenditures projections until 2013 according to the expected impact of the main demographic and technological health cost drivers&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Matherial and methods</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Future annual health expenditures are estimated using a simple method based on the decomposition of the past main growth factors in two scenarios&#46; The main cost drivers considered were the following&#58; demography&#44; which includes the increasing number of people and the impact of population ageing&#59; the increase in the price of health care inputs above the general price level&#59; and the impact of changes in medical practice related with expanding medical technology&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Results and discussion</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">In 2013&#44; public health care expenditure may be around 5&#46;7&#37; and 6&#37; of gross domestic product &#40;GDP&#41;&#59; that is&#44; at least&#44; between 0&#46;24 and 0&#46;53 additional GDP points will be spent on public health care&#46; The main factor responsible for the future expenditure increase will continue to be the increase in the average health service intensity&#44; followed by demographic factors&#46; In the base-case scenario&#44; public expenditure increase until 2013 will be compatible with a real 2&#46;5&#37; annual increase in consumption of non-health goods and services&#46; In order to finance the future costs&#44; the Spanish population will have to devote to public health expenditure less than 7&#37; of income increase until 2013&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Conclusion and perspectives</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Despite being important&#44; the expected Spanish GDP growth until 2013 may be enough to finance the increase in public health expenditure as a result of the impact of demographic changes&#46; Expanding medical technology is expected to continue being the main driver of future costs&#46;</p>"
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