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        "titulo" => "Trends in mortality from homicide in Medell&#237;n &#91;Colombia&#93;&#58; 1975-2003"
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        "resumen" => "<span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Objetivo</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Evaluar y describir la evoluci&#243;n de la mortalidad por homicidio en la ciudad de Medell&#237;n&#44; Colombia&#44; durante el per&#237;odo 1975-2003&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">M&#233;todo</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Se estudiaron las defunciones por homicidio ocurridas durante el per&#237;odo comprendido entre enero de 1975 y diciembre de 2003&#46; Con ayuda del programa SSS1se efectu&#243; un an&#225;lisis de series temporales utilizando procedimientos iterativos de construcci&#243;n de modelos ARIMA&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Resultados</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">La tasa promedio mensual de mortalidad por homicidio fue de 13&#44;2<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#215;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>10<span class="elsevierStyleSup">5</span> &#40;m&#237;nimo de 1&#44;94 en febrero de 1977 y m&#225;ximo de 38&#44;78 en diciembre de 1992&#41;&#46; Se observa un incremento en el per&#237;odo central de la serie&#46; Tras el estudio de varios modelos se lleg&#243; al ARIMA &#40;0&#44;1&#44;1&#41; &#40;0&#44;0&#44;1&#41;<span class="elsevierStyleSup">12</span>&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Conclusi&#243;n</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Se encontr&#243; una clara variaci&#243;n estacional annual en la ciudad de Medell&#237;n de la mortalidad por homicidio y se observ&#243; que en el mes de diciembre se produjeron las tasas m&#225;s altas&#46;</p>"
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        "titulo" => "Abstract"
        "resumen" => "<span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Objective</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">To describe and evaluate homicide mortality trends in the city of Medellin&#44; Colombia&#44; between 1975 and 2003&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Method</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Deaths from homicide between January&#44; 1975 and December&#44; 2003 were studied&#46; With the aid of the SSS1 program&#44; an analysis of temporary series was run using iterative procedures for ARIMA model construction&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Results</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">The mean monthly homicide mortality rate was 13&#46;2<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#215;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>10<span class="elsevierStyleSup">5</span> &#40;minimum 1&#46;94 February 1977 and maximum 38&#46;78 December 1992&#41;&#46; A peak was observed in the central period of the series&#46; Several models were studied and an ARIMA &#40;0&#44;1&#44;1&#41;&#40;0&#44;0&#44;1&#41;<span class="elsevierStyleSup">12</span> model was selected&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Conclusions</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Marked annual seasonal variation was found in mortality from homicide in the city of Medell&#237;n&#46; The highest rates were found in the month of December&#46;</p>"
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                        "editorial" => "Tercer Mundo editores"
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                            0 => "S&#46; Pandit"
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                      "titulo" => "Forecasting with univariate Box-Jenkins models"
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                            0 => "A&#46; Pankratz"
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                      "titulo" => "Bootstrapping the Box-Pierce Q test&#58; a robust test of ncorrelatedness &#40;1999&#41; Preliminary and incomplete draft"
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                      "titulo" => "Mortalidad por las cinco primeras causas y su modelacion temporal&#44; Medell&#237;n&#44; 1987-1996"
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                          "autores" => array:3 [
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                            2 => "J&#46; Londo&#241;o"
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                        "tituloSerie" => "Revista Facultad Nacional de Salud P&#250;blica &#40;Medell&#237;n&#41;"
                        "fecha" => "1998"
                        "volumen" => "16"
                        "paginaInicial" => "27"
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                  "referenciaCompleta" => "Presidencia de la Rep&#250;blica&#44; Ministerio de Defensa Nacional&#46; Efectividad de la Pol&#237;tica de Defensa y Seguridad Democr&#225;tica&#46; Bogot&#225;&#59; agosto 2002-enero 2004&#46;"
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                  "referenciaCompleta" => "Alcald&#237;a de Medell&#237;n&#46; Pedagog&#237;a para el mejoramiento de las costumbres ciudadanas&#46; Medell&#237;n&#58; Alcald&#237;a de Medell&#237;n&#59; 2003&#46;&#91;citado 12 Mar 2004&#93;&#46; Disponible en&#58; <a class="elsevierStyleInterRef" href="http://www.medellin.gov.co/contenedor.asp%3Fm=1%26s=4">http&#58;&#47;&#47;www&#46;medellin&#46;gov&#46;co&#47;contenedor&#46;asp&#63;m&#61;1&#38;s&#61;4</a>"
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                  "referenciaCompleta" => "Departamento Nacional de Planeaci&#243;n&#46; Ca&#237;da en &#237;ndices de violencia se mantiene durante &#250;ltimo a&#241;o&#44; revela Planeaci&#243;n Nacional&#46; Terrorismo&#44; ataque a poblaciones y secuestro registran las mayores ca&#237;das&#46; Hoy en Planeaci&#243;n&#46; Bogot&#225;&#44; 9 de julio de 2003&#46;"
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                  "referenciaCompleta" => "Casa de Nari&#241;o&#46; Informe sobre la Comuna 13 de Medell&#237;n&#46; Centro Nacional de Noticias del Estado &#40;CNE&#41; octubre 18&#44; 2002&#46; Bogot&#225;&#58; Casa de Nari&#241;o &#91;citado 9 Ene 2004&#93;&#46; Disponible en&#58; <a class="elsevierStyleInterRef" href="http://cne.presidencia.gov.co/">http&#58;&#47;&#47;cne&#46;presidencia&#46;gov&#46;co&#47;</a>"
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Evolución de la mortalidad por homicidio en Medellín (Colombia): 1975-2003
Trends in mortality from homicide in Medellín [Colombia]: 1975-2003
María de los Ángeles Rodríguez-Gázqueza,b,
Autor para correspondencia
mrodriguezgazquez@hispavista.com

Correspondencia: María de los Ángeles Rodríguez-Gázquez. Carrera 78 B. 32 A 75 Medellín. Colombia.
a Salud Pública. Universidad de Alicante. Medellín. Colombia
b Investigación de la Corporación Universitaria Lasallista. Medellín. Colombia
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        "resumen" => "<span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Objective</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">To describe and evaluate homicide mortality trends in the city of Medellin&#44; Colombia&#44; between 1975 and 2003&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Method</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Deaths from homicide between January&#44; 1975 and December&#44; 2003 were studied&#46; With the aid of the SSS1 program&#44; an analysis of temporary series was run using iterative procedures for ARIMA model construction&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Results</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">The mean monthly homicide mortality rate was 13&#46;2<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#215;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>10<span class="elsevierStyleSup">5</span> &#40;minimum 1&#46;94 February 1977 and maximum 38&#46;78 December 1992&#41;&#46; A peak was observed in the central period of the series&#46; Several models were studied and an ARIMA &#40;0&#44;1&#44;1&#41;&#40;0&#44;0&#44;1&#41;<span class="elsevierStyleSup">12</span> model was selected&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Conclusions</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Marked annual seasonal variation was found in mortality from homicide in the city of Medell&#237;n&#46; The highest rates were found in the month of December&#46;</p>"
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Información del artículo
ISSN: 02139111
Idioma original: Español
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