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        "resumen" => "<span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Objetivo</span><p id="spar0005" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Mostrar el efecto de los riesgos competitivos de muerte en el an&#225;lisis de supervivencia&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">M&#233;todos</span><p id="spar0010" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Se presenta un ejemplo sobre la supervivencia libre de rechazo tras un trasplante card&#237;aco&#44; en el que la muerte antes de desarrollar el rechazo act&#250;a como riesgo competitivo&#46; Mediante una simulaci&#243;n se comparan el estimador de Kaplan-Meier y el modelo de decrementos m&#250;ltiples&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Resultados</span><p id="spar0040" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">El m&#233;todo de Kaplan-Meier sobrestima el riesgo de rechazo&#46; A continuaci&#243;n&#44; se expone la aplicaci&#243;n del modelo de decrementos m&#250;ltiples para el an&#225;lisis de acontecimientos secundarios &#40;en el ejemplo&#44; la muerte tras el rechazo&#41;&#46; Finalmente&#44; se discuten las asunciones propias del m&#233;todo de Kaplan-Meier y las razones por las que no puede ser aplicado en presencia de riesgos competitivos&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Conclusiones</span><p id="spar0015" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">El an&#225;lisis de supervivencia debe ajustarse por los riesgos competitivos de muerte para evitar la sobrestimaci&#243;n del riesgo de fallo que se produce con el m&#233;todo de Kaplan-Meier&#46;</p>"
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        "resumen" => "<span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Objective</span><p id="spar0020" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">To show the impact of competing risks of death on survival analysis&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Method</span><p id="spar0025" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">We provide an example of survival time without chronic rejection after heart transplantation&#44; where death before rejection acts as a competing risk&#46; Using a computer simulation&#44; we compare the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the multiple decrement model&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Results</span><p id="spar0030" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">The Kaplan-Meier method overestimated the probability of rejection&#46; Next&#44; we illustrate the use of the multiple decrement model to analyze secondary end points &#40;in our example&#58; death after rejection&#41;&#46; Finally&#44; we discuss Kaplan-Meier assumptions and why they fail in the presence of competing risks&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Conclusions</span><p id="spar0035" class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Survival analysis should be adjusted for competing risks of death to avoid overestimation of the risk of rejection produced with the Kaplan-Meier method&#46;</p>"
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Análisis de supervivencia en presencia de riesgos competitivos: estimadores de la probabilidad de suceso
Survival analysis with competing risks: estimating failure probability
Javier Llorcaa,
Autor para correspondencia
llorcaj@unican.es

Correspondencia: Medicina Preventiva y Salud Pública. Facultad de Medicina. Avda. Cardenal Herrera Oria, s/n. 39011 Santander. España.
, Miguel Delgado-Rodríguezb
a Medicina Preventiva y Salud Pública. Facultad de Medicina de la Universidad de Cantabria. Santander
b Medicina Preventiva y Salud Pública. Universidad de Jaén. España
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