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        "resumen" => "<span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Objetivos</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Los m&#233;todos convencionales tienen limitaciones para ajustar por factores de confusi&#243;n dependientes del tiempo para evaluar la efectividad poblacional de tratamientos en estudios observacionales&#46; En este trabajo se muestra un nuevo tipo de metodolog&#237;a&#44; los modelos estructurales marginales &#40;MEM&#41;&#44; y se estima la efectividad de la terapia antirretroviral de gran actividad &#40;TARGA&#41; sobre la incidencia de sida o muerte&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Sujetos y m&#233;todos</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Se identificaron los sujetos sin TARGA seguidos a partir de 1997 en las cohortes de seroconvertores al virus de la inmunodeficiencia humana &#40;VIH&#41; del proyecto GEMES &#40;Grupo de Estudio Multic&#233;ntrico Espa&#241;ol de Seroconvertores&#41;&#46; Para estimar el efecto sobre la incidencia de sida o muerte&#44; se obtuvieron los par&#225;metros de un MEM mediante una regresi&#243;n log&#237;stica ponderada por probabilidad inversa&#46; La estimaci&#243;n de los pesos se bas&#243; en el recuento de CD4&#44; el tiempo desde la seroconversi&#243;n&#44; el sexo&#44; la edad&#44; la categor&#237;a de trasmisi&#243;n y el tratamiento previo&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Resultados</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Los 917 sujetos elegibles se siguieron durante una media de 3&#44;4 a&#241;os&#44; durante los cuales se observaron 139 desenlaces de inter&#233;s&#46; El 42&#44;1&#37; de los participantes recibi&#243; TARGA durante el estudio&#46; La tasa relativa fue de 1&#44;01 &#40;intervalo de confianza &#91;IC&#93; del 95&#37;&#44; 0&#44;68-1&#44;49&#41; mediante un modelo de Cox convencional sin covariables&#44; y de 0&#44;90 &#40;IC del 95&#37;&#44; 0&#44;61-1&#44;32&#41; mediante un modelo de Cox convencional con covariables cambiantes en el tiempo&#46; La tasa relativa causal estimada por un MEM fue de 0&#44;74 &#40;IC del 95&#37;&#44; 0&#44;49-1&#44;12&#41;&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Conclusiones</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">El efecto beneficioso del TARGA encontrado por los MEM est&#225; bien establecido&#44; pero los modelos convencionales no pudieron detectarlo&#46; El uso de un MEM permiti&#243; ajustar apropiadamente por la variable CD4&#44; que es a la vez una variable de confusi&#243;n dependiente del tiempo y est&#225; afectada por el uso previo de tratamiento&#46;</p>"
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        "titulo" => "Abstract"
        "resumen" => "<span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Objectives</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">Standard methods to evaluate population effectiveness of treatments in observational studies have important limitations to appropriately adjust for time-dependent confounders&#46; In this paper&#44; we describe a recently developed methodological approach&#44; marginal structural models &#40;MSM&#41;&#44; and use it to estimate the effectiveness of highly active antiretroviral therapy &#40;HAART&#41; on AIDS or death incidence&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Subjects and methods</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">We analyzed all subjects followed after 1997 as part of the GEMES project &#40;comprised by several cohorts of HIV seroconverters in Spain&#41; and who had not used HAART before the start of follow-up&#46; To estimate the effect of HAART on AIDS or death incidence&#44; we estimated the parameters of a marginal structural Cox model by fitting an inverse probability weighted logistic regression model&#46; The estimation of the weights was based on CD4 count&#44; time since seroconversion&#44; sex&#44; age&#44; transmission category and previous treatment&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Results</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">917 eligible subjects were followed for an average of 3&#46;4 years and we observed 139 events&#46; 42&#46;1&#37; of the participants received HAART during the study&#46; The estimated rate ratio was 1&#46;01 &#40;95&#37; confidence interval &#91;CI&#93;&#44; 0&#46;68- 1&#46;49&#41; using a Cox model without covariates and 0&#46;90 &#40;95&#37; CI&#44; 0&#46;61-1&#46;32&#41; using a Cox model with time-dependent covariates&#46; The causal rate ratio estimated for MSM was 0&#46;74&#44; &#40;95&#37; CI&#44; 0&#46;49-1&#46;12&#41;&#46;</p> <span class="elsevierStyleSectionTitle">Conclusions</span><p class="elsevierStyleSimplePara elsevierViewall">The beneficial effect of HAART estimated by the MSM&#44; but largely missed by conventional methods&#44; is consistent with the findings of previous randomized studies&#46; The MSM appropriately adjusted for the time-dependent covariate CD4 count&#44; which is both a time-varying confounder and is affected by prior treatment&#46;</p>"
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