Analyzing fault in pedestrian–motor vehicle crashes in North Carolina
Introduction
Walking, for exercise or as an alternative mode of transportation, is encouraged in today's society. Walking provides health benefits and decreases the use of motor vehicles. However, pedestrians share the world with motor vehicles and the resulting opportunities for conflict lead to a crash risk. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) reported a total of 68,000 pedestrian injuries and 4,641 pedestrian fatalities in the U.S.A. in 2004 (NHTSA, 2005). While these numbers account for only 2% of people injured in traffic crashes in the U.S.A., they represent 11% of traffic crash fatalities (NHTSA, 2005).
Fault is assigned to the party (pedestrian, driver, both, or in some cases neither) who acted negligently or is in other ways found to have caused the crash. Some studies indicate that the pedestrian, not the driver, is more commonly found at fault (Lee and Abdel-Aty, 2005, Preusser et al., 2002) but in a recent study drivers were more likely to be found at fault (Kim et al., 2008a, Kim et al., 2008b).
Fault has been explored in non-pedestrian–motor vehicle crashes. For example, a young or an elderly driver is more likely to be found at fault than a middle-aged driver (McGwin and Brown, 1999). Young males are more likely to be at fault than young females, whereas the opposite holds for elderly females compared to elderly males (McGwin and Brown, 1999). However, relatively few studies have focused on fault and the factors correlated with the assignment of fault in pedestrian crashes, aside from a study in Hawaii (Kim et al., 2008b).
Research has explored a variety of aspects relating to pedestrian safety, including pedestrian injury severity (Kim et al., 2010, Kim et al., 2008a, Kim, 2007), effects of gender (Kim et al., 2010, Clifton et al., 2004), vehicle speed (Gårder, 2004), U.S. interstate crashes (Johnson, 1997), pedestrian age (Kim et al., 2010, Kim et al., 2008a, Oxley et al., 1997, Oxley et al., 2005, Zegeer et al., 1993), fault (Kim et al., 2008b), intersections (Lee and Abdel-Aty, 2005), truck crashes (Lefler and Gabler, 2004), pedestrian behavior (McMahon et al., 1999), crash types (Stutts et al., 1996), and crash frequency (Shankar et al., 2003) to name just a few of the areas that have been studied.
Multiple studies have examined the pedestrian actions that most commonly contribute to crash occurrence. Pedestrians failing to yield the right of way, disregarding traffic signals, running into the street, stepping from between parked cars, walking while intoxicated, or walking with traffic rather than against it are noted (Preusser et al., 2002, Oxley et al., 1997, Stutts et al., 1996, Baltes, 1998). Such behavior can be correlated with the assignment of fault.
Pedestrians are naturally not the only ones who cause crashes. Failure to yield, excessive speed, improper backing, moving violations, distraction, reckless driving, and intoxication have been identified as some of the most frequent contributing factors involving drivers (Stutts et al., 1996). A study of fatal hit-and-run pedestrian crashes showed that drivers are less likely to leave the scene when the pedestrian is a child or an elderly person (Solnick and Hemenway, 1995). When the pedestrian is female or a child, it is more likely that the driver will be identified. Drivers often run from crashes where they would be considered to be at fault (Solnick and Hemenway, 1995).
The binary assignment of fault to either driver or pedestrian in Hawaii has been explored (Kim et al., 2008b). Fault and the factors affecting it have also been studied for bicycle–motor vehicle crashes (Kim and Li, 1996). The present study explores how observable factors associated with pedestrian–motor vehicle crashes correlate with which party is found at fault in a multinomial fashion, i.e. driver at fault, pedestrian at fault, or both at fault. The study omits hit-and-run crashes, which are about 12% of the complete dataset. In many such cases, the driver and vehicle information is not known and in the majority of those cases fault has been assigned to the driver. This may lead to an underrepresentation of intoxicated drivers, since it can be speculated that intoxicated drivers may be more likely to leave the scene.
The results of this study provide new information on behavior and factors associated with being found at fault. This information can be used to increase awareness of pedestrian and driver behavior that contributes to crash occurrence.
Section snippets
Methodology
Numerous models exist for exploring data, predicting behavior, and forecasting outcomes. Kim et al. (2008b) studied fault in pedestrian–motor vehicle crashes using logistic regressions for each crash type. In their study there were two outcomes, pedestrian at fault or driver at fault. For binary outcomes the logistic regression or odds-ratio analysis are natural methods, but other methods could be used, such as discriminate analysis and analysis of variance (see, e.g. the textbook by Agresti,
Data description
This study uses police reported pedestrian–motor vehicle crash data compiled from 1997 through 2000 in the state of North Carolina, U.S.A. The data is subject to potential underreporting, although such problems are expected to be lesser when considering pedestrian–motor vehicle crashes than for vehicle-only crashes, due to either party's interest in reporting the other party's fault, and the increased likelihood of injury in crashes involving pedestrians. Crashes where fault was not determined
Results
The multinomial logit model results for the estimated effect of observed variables on the probability of fault assignment in pedestrian–motor vehicle crashes are shown in Table 2. Recall that this is a conditional model which depends on a crash having occurred. The average direct pseudo-elasticities for these factors are presented in Table 3.
The Small–Hsiao test (Small and Hsiao, 1985) did not reject the null hypothesis of the IIA property holding valid in the resulting MNL model at the 0.05
Conclusions
The largest effects based on the average direct pseudo-elasticity for each fault outcome indicate the factors that change the probability of fault determination the most. First review a summary of those effects. The largest effects associated with the driver being found solely at fault are: driver turning/merging (437%), speed is a factor (301%), driver backing up (242%), driver intoxicated (172%), and multiple pedestrians (126%).
The largest effects associated with the pedestrian being found
Acknowledgments
This research was supported in part by the U.S. National Science Foundation and the U.S. Department of Defense [Grant Number EEC-0353718]. The authors gratefully acknowledge the assistance of the Highway Safety Research Center at the University of North Carolina, which provided the data.
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